Arthur Hayes believes leveraged traders who hold Japanese yen ($JPY) are being forced to unwind their positions in U.S. stocks and bonds, disrupting the markets.
In a post on Apr 22, he warned that if bond yields go even higher, the Fed or the broader U.S. monetary authorities will have no choice but to print money and reestablish liquidity. Overall, he holds firm to his long-held belief that Bitcoin does well in these types of environments.
At Deutsche Bank and Citigroup, where he was the chief ETF market maker, Hayes started his career as an equity derivatives trader.
Hayes was the CEO and co-founder of BitMEX, a cryptocurrency derivatives exchange, in 2014.
In a similar vein, ETF expert Eric Balchunas provided a graph showing how Bitcoin has diverged from the stock market recently. Bitcoin's correlation to the stock market was even lower than that of gold or bonds, which are generally considered safer investments.
In 2024, when the S&P 500 increased by 24%, Bitcoin's value also increased 135% overall, a strong positive correlation.
Many analysts believe that Bitcoin has decoupled from the traditional U.S. stock markets. The ongoing U.S. tariff tussle with China and the President's disapproval of the Fed Chair has increasingly emptied the U.S. stock market.
As of Apr 22, the Dow Jones is up by 0.83%, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 have both tanked over 2%. In the meantime, Bitcoin is trading at $88,785.50, as per Kraken's price feed. The current price of Bitcoin has increased by over 3% in the last seven days.