The July employment report came in weaker than expected Friday, with nonfarm payrolls rising only 114,000 and the unemployment rate climbing to 4.3%.
That has sparked debate about the health of the economy. Some see the numbers showing a hard landing — a substantial slowing — for the economy is possible.
"The latest snapshot of the labor market is consistent with a slowdown, not necessarily a recession,” said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist for LPL Financial. “However, early warning signs suggest further weakness.”
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Still, others say the data aren’t so weak: Both the payroll and unemployment statistics point to a solid economy. And they note that while average hourly earnings rose less in July than June, they were still up 3.6% from a year earlier.
“One negative miss shouldn’t lead to overreaction,” said Lara Castleton, U.S. head of portfolio construction and strategy at Janus Henderson Investors. “GDP is still strong, average hourly earnings are rising, and inflation is coming down.”
GDP totaled 2.8% annualized in the second quarter.
And inflation, as measured by the personal consumption expenditures price index, a benchmark favored by the Federal Reserve, registered 2.5% in June. That still exceeds the Fed’s target of 2%.
Fed rate cut seen coming
In any case, there is widespread agreement that the central bank will cut interest rates at its next meeting Sept. 17-18. That would be the first reduction since it finished its rate-hike campaign in July 2023.
Given the Fed’s lingering concern with inflation, it looks likely to cut rates by only 0.25 percentage point in September. But markets tend to overreact. So it’s no wonder that interest-rate futures point to a 78.5% probability of a half-point cut.
The central bank’s Federal Funds Rate target now stands at 5.25%-5.5%. That's the rate banks charge each other for loans. Banks borrow from other banks to keep their capital levels stable.
Related: Jobs report cements case for bigger Fed interest rate cut
On Friday, stocks slid by 2.4% due to the sluggish jobs data. Equities have lost 6.2% since hitting a record July 16.
Some experts say rate cuts will boost both the economy and stocks. But the renowned investor Doug Kass, author of TheStreet Pro's Daily Diary, begs to differ.
On July 2, Kass said the market is “flying too close to the sun." He said that higher than normal bond yields relative to stock yields, a Fed reluctant to cut as much as many think, and a market fueled by a handful of big winners made stocks risky.