The most closely watched metric for Verizon Communications(NYSE: VZ) during earnings season isn't the company's revenue or profits. Instead, it tends to be its postpaid phone subscriber numbers. Postpaid subscribers have wireless plans that are billed monthly, as opposed to prepaid subscribers, who pay for their services upfront.
Prepaid subscribers generally are not as affluent, and the business has much more churn. Meanwhile, its consumer and business wireline businesses are in decline. Broadband is a growth business, but the focus still tends to be on its core postpaid wireless business, as this is the gateway to its other offerings.
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On the postpaid wireless front, the company disappointed. After adding 568,000 wireless postpaid phone net additions in Q4 2024, it lost 289,000 in Q1 2025. The first quarter tends to see churn; in Q1, it lost 114,000 postpaid phone subscribers last year. However, the decline was worse than the loss of 197,000 subscribers that analysts were expecting.
Much of this appears to stem from price hikes, as the company's total wireless service revenue rose 2.7% to $20.8 billion despite the churn in customers. However, the company said that it saw mid-single-digit consumer postpaid phone gross additions in March and that its performance thus far in April has been strong. It noted that its new three-year price lock and free phone guarantee were starting to resonate with customers.
It also highlighted its new myPlan and myHome plans, which allow customers to customize their plans and add perks, such as discounted streaming services or unlimited cloud storage. myPlan is for mobile customers, while myHome is for broadband customers.
Broadband continued to be an area of strength in Q1, with 339,000 net additions in the quarter. This included 45,000 Fios internet net additions and 308,000 fixed wireless additions. Overall, it said total broadband connections increased by 13.7% year over year to 12.8 million, with 4.8 million of those being fixed wireless access subscribers.
Image source: Getty Images.
It plans to deliver 650,000 incremental Fios passings this year while continuing to expand its C-band deployment. C-band is a wireless spectrum that Verizon is using to deliver its fixed mobile broadband solution and enhance its mobile wireless solution. C-band provides broadband internet service to areas that don't have traditional infrastructure.
Overall, Verizon continued to deliver steady results. Its overall revenue rose by 1.5% to $33.5 billion, while its adjusted EPS increased 3.5% to $1.19. That was just ahead of the analyst consensus for adjusted EPS of $1.15 on revenue of $33.3 billion. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), meanwhile, rose 4.1% to $12.6 billion.
Looking ahead, Verizon maintained its full-year 2025 guidance. It continues to expect wireless revenue growth to be between 2% and 2.8% and for adjusted EPS to increase by 0% to 3%. The company projects operating cash flow to be between $35 billion and $37 billion after spending about half of that on capital expenditures (capex) to result in free cash flow between $17.5 billion and $18.5 billion.
A dividend darling
One of the things that most attracts investors to Verizon is its dividend. It has a robust forward dividend yield of about 6.4%, which is a nice payout in this environment.
The dividend remains well covered, with the company paying $2.85 billion in dividends in Q1 while it generated $3.63 billion in free cash flow. That's good for a nearly 1.3x coverage ratio. Over the past 12 months, it's generated free cash flow of $18.73 billion and paid out $11.03 billion in dividends, good for a 1.8 times coverage ratio. That gives the company plenty of room to continue to both invest in its business and increase its dividend moving forward.
The company's balance sheet also remains in solid shape with a leverage ratio on unsecured debt (net unsecured debt/trailing-12-month adjusted EBITDA) of 2.3.
With Verizon forecasting $17.5 billion to $18.5 billion in free cash flow this year, the company has a wide cushion to continue to increase its dividend, even if a weaker economic environment negatively impacts its results.
Is it time to buy the stock?
While Verizon's recent price hike caused some elevated churn in the most recent quarter, postpaid wireless subscriber additions look like they have been back on track for the last couple of months. Meanwhile, its three-year price lock and phone upgrade plan looks like an attractive offering that can drive subscriber growth.
At the same time, the company continues to do well by adding broadband customers. Its fixed wireless C-band offering allows it to target households in areas without fiber or cable broadband services. It is also a nice alternative option for customers who have cut the cord with cable but who are still beholden to their cable company's broadband options.
Turning to valuation, Verizon trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 9 based on 2025 earnings estimates, which is well below the nearly 13 times multiple of AT&T. With very similar overall growth metrics as AT&T, I think Verizon is the better buy and remains a solid, defensive dividend stock.
I wouldn't get caught up in one quarter of weak postpaid subscriber growth, as the overall picture at Verizon remains solid.
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Geoffrey Seiler has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Verizon Communications. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
