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When you buy a stock there is always a possibility that it could drop 100%. But on the bright side, you can make far more than 100% on a really good stock. Long term Valvoline Inc. (NYSE:VVV) shareholders would be well aware of this, since the stock is up 106% in five years. And in the last week the share price has popped 3.9%. But this might be partly because the broader market had a good week last week, gaining 7.1%.
Since the stock has added US$165m to its market cap in the past week alone, let's see if underlying performance has been driving long-term returns.
Our free stock report includes 3 warning signs investors should be aware of before investing in Valvoline. Read for free now.
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
During five years of share price growth, Valvoline achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 12% per year. This EPS growth is lower than the 16% average annual increase in the share price. This suggests that market participants hold the company in higher regard, these days. That's not necessarily surprising considering the five-year track record of earnings growth.
The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Valvoline's earnings, revenue and cash flow.
What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?
We'd be remiss not to mention the difference between Valvoline's total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Its history of dividend payouts mean that Valvoline's TSR of 116% over the last 5 years is better than the share price return.
A Different Perspective
While the broader market gained around 9.3% in the last year, Valvoline shareholders lost 19%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 17%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Case in point: We've spotted 3 warning signs for Valvoline you should be aware of, and 1 of them is significant.