REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque
President Obama speaks about the situation in Iraq in the briefing room of the White House in Washington on June 19, 2014.
The U.S. may soon be confronted with choosing one of two unappealing options as crises and negotiations in the Middle East blend together.
Both choices involve Iran, which is angling for a nuclear deal to open its economy while fighting what Dexter Filkins called " a much wider war, reaching from the Iranian frontier to the Mediterranean coast."
Until about a week ago, negotiators on all sides of the Iranian nuclear talks had said prospects for a comprehensive nuclear deal by a July 20 deadline were diminished. That was until the crisis in Iraq flared up and Iran seized the opportunity to step up and help the U.S. save face.
Iran has a point of leverage — and it seems to know it.
Rouhani's chief of staff, Mohammad Nahavandian, told reporters on Wednesday the nuclear negotiations served as a "test for confidence building." And he said if they come to a resolution "there might be opportunities for other issues to be discussed."
In other words — if the U.S. and President Obama really want Iran's help in stabilizing Iraq, something in which both sides have an interest, a nuclear resolution had better come soon.
"The Iranians desperately needed leverage," one European negotiator told The New York Times on Thursday. "They clearly think the American fear of getting sucked back into Iraq may be just the thing, at just the right moment."
The nuclear negotiations have stalled, however, because of a wide gulf of disagreement on a number of issues. The biggest disparity: Iran wants to eventually operate 150,000 uranium-enriching centrifuges, up from its current stock of 20,000 (about 10,000 of which are running). U.S., Russia, China, U.K., France, plus Germany (P5+1) want them to decrease that amount to the low thousands.
"The other side should abandon its excessive demands. Iran will never accept such demands," Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif told reporters on Friday.
The U.S. and other world powers don't seem willing to make a bad deal, which means that the two sides would have to extend the talks for another six months, exacerbating the nuclear crisis.
Back To Iraq
America's options in Iraq appear to be doing something drastic (such as airstrikes) or working with Iran.
REUTERS
Iranian Gen. Qassem Suleimani is running point on the ground as Iraq's army is bolstered by Iranian Revolutionary Guard forces (IRGC) and Iran-trained Shia militiamen, many of whom have returned this year after "protecting shrines" in Syria.