(Bloomberg) -- Russia’s crude exports have yet to be curtailed by the latest US sanctions to target its oil, with flows broadly stable. But while loading cargoes onto tankers is one thing, getting them off is another — and signs are emerging that the curbs are stalling the completion of shipments.
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In the Pacific, only two of nine cargoes shipped from the Sakhalin Island oil and gas projects since the sanctions have discharged. Of the other seven, four are idling near the Russian port of Nakhodka, one has been between Japan and South Korea since Jan. 17 and another arrived Monday off its Chinese destination. The last has yet to reach a location where it too is likely to idle.
With a combined fleet of only 10 specialized tankers typically used to haul these grades, it won’t be long before shipments start to falter if the ships aren’t released. So far only one of the post-sanctions cargoes has been transferred to another vessel.
Key Pacific grade ESPO is continuing to move, with unsanctioned vessels being drafted in to replace those targeted by the US last month. Only two of 27 cargoes loaded between Jan. 10 and Feb. 2 were put onto vessels sanctioned by Washington. Neither has yet attempted to offload its cargo, with one idling off Kozmino since it was loaded, vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg show.
The first tanker to load a post-sanctions cargo from the Arctic port of Murmansk entered the Mediterranean on Sunday, heading for the Suez Canal. Shipping data suggests it’s heading for the west coast of India, where it should arrive in about two weeks’ time. New Delhi has said it won’t accept cargoes on sanctioned vessels after a deadline later this month.
If cargoes aren’t accepted at receiving terminals, floating storage of Russian oil will build up quickly. Already, one of the post-sanctions cargoes from Murmansk is on a ship signaling OPL Oman — a potential storage site — as its destination.
Crude Shipments
A total of 29 tankers loaded 21.61 million barrels of Russian crude in the week to Feb. 2, vessel-tracking data and port-agent reports show. The volume was down from a revised 22.5 million barrels on 29 ships the previous week.
Daily crude flows in the seven days to Feb. 2 fell by about 130,000 barrels, or 4%, from the previous week to 3.09 million. Drops in flows from the country’s main Pacific port and the Black Sea was offset by an increase in shipments from Baltic terminals. Flows from the smaller Baltic port of Ust-Luga remain depressed compared with levels seen before mid-December.