- By James Li
As of Nov. 4, the U.S. total market cap / gross domestic product ratio is 115.9%. While the stock market is still significantly overvalued, the market valuation improved by about 6% compared to the Oct. 4 valuation .
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The intrinsic value of BRK.A
A summary of the market valuation based on two metrics
Warren Buffett (Trades, Portfolio) and Robert Shiller present two separate market valuation metrics based on the market price-sales ratio and the price-to- E10 ratio, respectively. The former, according to Buffett, is "probably the best single measure" for the market valuation, as P/S valuations generally revert to the mean. The total market index as of Nov. 4 is $21.61 trillion, about 115.9% higher than GDP. Buffett's indicator suggests an annual return of 0.7% including dividends.
While the market valuations followed the pessimistic case in the late 1970s, the valuations generally followed the expected case that assumes a TMV / GDP ratio of 80% since 1994. The expected annual market return ranges from -7.2% to 5.7% based on current market valuations.
Shiller, a professor at Yale, presents an alternative valuation measure based on the inflation-adjusted earnings for the past 10 years, or E10. As of November, the U.S. market has a Shiller P/E of 26.4, about 58% than the historical median. Unlike Buffett's valuation, which implies a positive annual return, this valuation implies a future annual return of -0.3%. Despite this, the Shiller P/E decreased 0.17% during October.
Insiders becoming bullish about stock market
Even though the insider buy / sell ratio reached near a five-year low Aug. 1, the ratio increased over 10% during the third quarter. As of Nov. 4, the insider buy / sell ratio is 0.5 while the CEO buy / sell ratio is 0.56. While the former remained the same throughout October, the latter increased 10%. Chief financial officers also significantly increased their buy / sell ratio: during October, the chief financial officer buy / sell ratio increased 14%. Based on these trends, company management is generally becoming bullish about the stock market.
SP 500 earnings slightly improve after sharp 2015 decline
After reaching a five-year high Sept. 2, 2014, S&P 500 earnings steadily declined throughout 2015, likely due to tumbling crude oil prices. However, the earnings gradually increased during the past nine months as crude oil prices climb from a 10-year low. The increase in S&P 500 earnings suggest that the U.S. stock market shows good improvement from prior months.