(Bloomberg) -- The number of Americans on benefit rolls climbed to a more than three-year high, while first-time applications for US unemployment insurance edged slightly higher.
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Continuing claims, a proxy for people who are already receiving benefits and still can’t find a job, jumped to 1.9 million in the week ended Jan. 11, the highest since November 2021, according to Labor Department data released Thursday. Initial claims increased by 6,000 to 223,000 last week.
New applications have hovered near their pre-pandemic averages, a sign of a healthy labor market. But the rise in recurring claims suggests more unemployed people are having a tougher time finding a new job.
Weekly numbers tend to be volatile, however, particularly at this time of the year. The four-week moving average of new applications, a metric that helps smooth out bumpiness, rose slightly to 213,500.
“There has been the usual elevated volatility in the weekly readings for this time of the year, and weather and natural disasters are likely to keep the figures fluid over the next few weeks,” Stephen Stanley, chief economist for Santander US Capital Markets LLC, said in a note.
Economists are paying close attention to labor data for the week ended Jan. 18, because it’s the week when surveys used to prepare this month’s employment report were conducted. The period was marked by devastating fires that tore through neighborhoods in Los Angeles.
What Bloomberg Economics Say...
“Jobless claims remained relatively low in the survey week for the January jobs report, suggesting the month’s unemployment rate was little changed despite the California wildfires. The new administration’s pro-business posture could reinvigorate capex spending and boost hiring. At the same time, President Donald Trump signed executive orders to reduce the size of federal-government employment, which will increase the number of unemployed.”
—Eliza Winger
To read the full note, see here
Before adjusting for seasonal factors, initial claims dropped by about 68,000 last week, the most in three years. Four states provided only estimates, including California — which registered the biggest gain in applications — following a surge in the previous week.
--With assistance from Chris Middleton and Vince Golle.