(Bloomberg) -- Investors are turning to Asian sovereign bonds to ride out the US election, giving a boost to markets that have already benefited from billions of dollars of foreign inflows this year.
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Asset managers such as Allianz Global Investors, Franklin Templeton and Gama Asset Management are bullish on government debt in Asia ex-China. Expectations of rate cuts have buoyed demand, and they say these bonds will be safe havens in the event of market jitters around the election.
“In the next few weeks, there’s going to be a lot of noise,” said Christy Tan, an investment strategist at Franklin Templeton, which had over $1.6 trillion of assets under management at the end of September. “If you look outside of the US into Asia, where are the safe havens? The easiest that comes to mind is Indonesian bonds,” she added, pointing to the country’s manageable inflation and the positive impact of its new president.
Traders across Asian markets are bracing themselves for volatility as Nov. 5 nears. Wall Street banks are telling their clients to expect a decline in China’s currency amid rising tariff risks, and equity investors are weighing up the impact of a possible trade war flare-up on chip stocks and other sectors.
South Korean policymakers cut rates this month for the first time in more than four years, and central banks in Indonesia and the Philippines have also lowered borrowing costs. The two Southeast Asian countries are now among the best picks for bond investors, said Rajeev De Mello, chief investment officer at Gama Asset Management.
South Korea and India are also getting a boost from recent changes by index provider FTSE Russell, which added sovereign bonds from the countries to two separate indexes. India’s inclusion in the emerging market debt gauge from next year may boost inflows by $9 billion, according to Barclays Plc.
“Fundamentals are improving, technicals are positive and valuations are still attractive,” said Shamaila Khan, head of fixed income in emerging markets and Asia Pacific at UBS Asset Management, who recommends dollar bonds issued by Sri Lanka and Pakistan. “With the Fed cutting rates and the China stimulus, I think you have a tailwind to emerging market performance for 2025.”
Still, Asian sovereign bonds aren’t without risk. Further losses in Treasuries may squeeze the yield advantage investors get from holding Asian sovereign debt. And any strengthening in the dollar would dent the appeal of foreign-currency assets.