US Dollar Traders Hold Record Long Position; Reversal Risk is High

Jamie Saettele, CMT

Mon, Apr 1, 2013, 9:35 AM

Latest CFTC Release dated March 12, 2013:

Week (Data for Tuesdays)	52 week Percentile / Comment (if applicable)
US Dollar	100 – non-commercial USD longs reach a record
Euro	65
British Pound	0-COT index is lowest since October 2011
Australian Dollar	84
Japanese Yen	10
Canadian Dollar	2- COT index is lowest since March 2007
Swiss Franc	31
Gold	14
Silver	25
Copper	8
Crude	84

The COT Index is the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured. A light blue colored bar indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks (bullish) with speculators selling and commercials buying. A light red colored bar indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks (bearish) with speculators buying and commercials selling. Crosses above and below 0 are in bold. Non commercials tend to be on the wrong side at the turn and commercials the correct side. Use of the index is covered closely in detail in my book.

Charts

Non Commercials (speculators) – Red

Commercials – Blue

Small Speculators – White

COTDiff (COT Index) – White

US Dollar