DailyFX

US Dollar Stalling at November Top, SPX 500 Remains at Risk

Ilya Spivak

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Treading Water at November Swing High

  • S&P 500 Remains Vulnerable to Downward Reversal

  • Crude Oil Aims at $91.00 After Range Bottom Break

Can’t access to the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices pulled back as expected, forming a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick patter below resistance in the 10641-53 area marked by the November 12 high and the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion. Initial support is at 10589, the 23.6% Fib retracement, with a break below that targeting the 38.2% mark at 10589. Alternatively, a turn above 10653 aims for the 38.2% expansion at 10839.

Forex_US_Dollar_Stalling_at_November_Top_SPX_500_Remains_at_Risk_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar Stalling at November Top, SPX 500 Remains at Risk
Forex_US_Dollar_Stalling_at_November_Top_SPX_500_Remains_at_Risk_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar Stalling at November Top, SPX 500 Remains at Risk

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices put in a Shooting Star candlestick below resistance at 1808.20, the 150% Fibonacci expansion, hinting a turn lower may be ahead. Negative RSI divergence and the outlines of a Rising Wedge chart formation reinforce the case for a downside scenario. Breaking the Wedge bottom – now squarely at 1800.00 – exposes the 138.2% and 123.6% Fib levels at 1798.50 and 1779.80, respectively. A push above resistance targets the 161.8% expansion at 1820.80.

Forex_US_Dollar_Stalling_at_November_Top_SPX_500_Remains_at_Risk_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar Stalling at November Top, SPX 500 Remains at Risk
Forex_US_Dollar_Stalling_at_November_Top_SPX_500_Remains_at_Risk_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar Stalling at November Top, SPX 500 Remains at Risk

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices bounced from support at 1222.60, the 76.4% Fibonacci expansion. Resistance is in the 1251.21-56.18 area, marked by the 23.6% Fib retracement and a falling trend line set from late October. A break above that targets the 38.2% retracement at 1276.35. Alternatively, a reversal below support eyes the $1200/oz figure and the 100% expansion at 1179.63.

Forex_US_Dollar_Stalling_at_November_Top_SPX_500_Remains_at_Risk_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar Stalling at November Top, SPX 500 Remains at Risk
Forex_US_Dollar_Stalling_at_November_Top_SPX_500_Remains_at_Risk_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar Stalling at November Top, SPX 500 Remains at Risk

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS– Prices broke lower out of consolidation, taking out the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 92.79 to expose the 38.2% level at 91.06. A further push beneath that eyes the 50% Fib at 89.66. Alternatively, reversing back above 92.79 aims for a falling channel top at 94.23.

Forex_US_Dollar_Stalling_at_November_Top_SPX_500_Remains_at_Risk_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar Stalling at November Top, SPX 500 Remains at Risk
Forex_US_Dollar_Stalling_at_November_Top_SPX_500_Remains_at_Risk_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar Stalling at November Top, SPX 500 Remains at Risk

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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