DailyFX

US Dollar Gains Expected After Pullback, SPX 500 May Be Topping

Ilya Spivak

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Looks Corrective in the Context of an Upside Breakout

  • S&P 500 Chart Positioning Warns a Top May Be Set at 1800.00

  • Gold Reversal Cut Short at Support, Crude Oil Recovery Hinted

Can’t access to the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices pulled back to retest resistance-turned-support in the 10509-37 area, marked by the top of a falling channel set from July. A break downward initially eyes the November 6 low at 10492. Near-term resistance is at 10653, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a push above that targeting the 38.2% level at 10839.

Forex_US_Dollar_Gains_Expected_After_Pullback_SPX_500_May_Be_Topping_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar Gains Expected After Pullback, SPX 500 May Be Topping
Forex_US_Dollar_Gains_Expected_After_Pullback_SPX_500_May_Be_Topping_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar Gains Expected After Pullback, SPX 500 May Be Topping

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices pulled back as expected, completing a bearish Three Inside Down candlestick pattern. Near-term support is in the 1765.70-73.40 area, marked by a horizontal barrier set from late October and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. A break below that targets the 38.2% level at 1743.00. Near-term resistance is at 1802.40, the November 18 high.

Forex_US_Dollar_Gains_Expected_After_Pullback_SPX_500_May_Be_Topping_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar Gains Expected After Pullback, SPX 500 May Be Topping
Forex_US_Dollar_Gains_Expected_After_Pullback_SPX_500_May_Be_Topping_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar Gains Expected After Pullback, SPX 500 May Be Topping

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices recoiled from resistance at 1292.15, marked by the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion and reinforced by a falling trend line set from October 28. A break below support at 1270.67, the 50% level, threatens to overturn a bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern and expose the 61.8% Fib at 1249.18. Alternatively, a reversal above resistance targets the 23.6% expansion at 1318.73.

Forex_US_Dollar_Gains_Expected_After_Pullback_SPX_500_May_Be_Topping_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar Gains Expected After Pullback, SPX 500 May Be Topping
Forex_US_Dollar_Gains_Expected_After_Pullback_SPX_500_May_Be_Topping_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar Gains Expected After Pullback, SPX 500 May Be Topping

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS– Prices continue to consolidate above the November 14 low 92.49, with positive RSI divergence hinting a bounce may be ahead. Initial resistance is at 95.37, marked by the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion and reinforced by the top of a falling channel set from late August. A break above that initially exposes the 23.6% level at 97.14. Alternatively, a move below 92.49 targets the channel bottom at 90.27.

Forex_US_Dollar_Gains_Expected_After_Pullback_SPX_500_May_Be_Topping_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar Gains Expected After Pullback, SPX 500 May Be Topping
Forex_US_Dollar_Gains_Expected_After_Pullback_SPX_500_May_Be_Topping_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar Gains Expected After Pullback, SPX 500 May Be Topping

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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