DailyFX.com -
Talking Points:
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Commodity bloc FX gains, US Dollar retreats as payroll data looms
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Fed officials’ commentary a wildcard in otherwise deliberative trade
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British Pound may fall as soft PMI data weighs on BOE policy bets
The Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars advanced in overnight trade. The sentiment-linked currencies shrugged off weakness across Asian stock exchanges – where prices seemed to reflect follow-on weakness carrying over from losses on Wall Street – to rise alongside the more forward-looking S&P 500 futures.
The US Dollar retraced downward having launched a broad-based recovery against its major counterparts in the first half of the week. Taken together, price action probably reflects corrective pre-positioning ahead of Friday’s much-anticipated release of April’s US labor-market data after commodity-bloc FX underperformed in the prior 48 hours.
The deliberative tone is likely to carry forward absent an uncharacteristically brazen comment from Fed officials due to speak in the hours ahead. Remarks from James Bullard, Dennis Lockhart and John Williams – Presidents of the Fed’s St. Louis, Dallas and San Francisco branches respectively – are due to cross the wires.
UK PMI data headlines the economic calendar in European hours. The composite gauge is expected to show that the pace of manufacturing- and service-sector activity growth narrowly slowed in April. UK economic news-flow has increasingly disappointed relative to median forecasts over the past month, opening the door for a downside surprise that may hurt BOE policy bets and weigh on the British Pound.
What does FXCM traders’ positioning say about FX market trends? Find out here!
Asia Session
| GMT | CCY | EVENT | ACT | EXP | PREV |
| 22:30 | USD | Fed's Kashkari Hosts Town Hall | - | - | - |
| 01:00 | AUD | HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (MAR) | 8.9% | - | -5.3% |
| 01:30 | AUD | Trade Balance (MAR) | -2163m | -2900m | -3044m |
| 01:30 | AUD | Retail Sales (MoM) (MAR) | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 01:30 | AUD | Retail Sales Ex Inflation (QoQ) (1Q) | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% |
| 01:45 | CNY | Caixin China PMI Services (APR) | 51.8 | - | 52.2 |
| 01:45 | CNY | Caixin China PMI Composite (APR) | 50.8 | - | 51.3 |
European Session
| GMT | CCY | EVENT | EXP | PREV | IMPACT |
| 07:30 | GBP | Halifax House Prices (MoM) (APR) | -0.3% | 2.6% | Medium |
| 07:30 | GBP | Halifax House Price (3Mths/Year) (APR) | 9.6% | 10.1% | Medium |
| 08:00 | EUR | ECB Publishes Economic Bulletin | - | - | Medium |
| 08:10 | EUR | Markit Eurozone Retail PMI (APR) | - | 49.2 | Low |
| 08:30 | GBP | Official Reserves Changes (APR) | - | $756m | Low |
| 08:30 | GBP | Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI (APR) | 53.5 | 53.7 | Medium |
| 08:30 | GBP | Markit/CIPS UK Composite PMI (APR) | 53.2 | 53.6 | Medium |
| 10:30 | EUR | ECB's Visco Speaks in Florence | - | - | Low |
Critical Levels