What US-China game of chicken over Pelosi and Taiwan means for Southeast Asia

As a possible Taiwan visit by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi sparks explosive rows between Beijing and Washington, the reaction from Southeast Asian nations has been more muted, including calling upon the two rival powers to defuse tensions.

International relations and defence experts say it is understandable that Beijing sees Pelosi's likely trip as a "provocation", a move to support "Taiwan independence" in violation of the US' avowed one-China policy.

Washington, however, says the visit aims to stop mainland China from trying to change the status quo across the Taiwan Strait by force.

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Beijing considers self-governed Taiwan to be a renegade province and has never renounced the use of force to bring it back into the fold, stepping up pressure in recent years with intensive naval drills and warplane sorties around it.

The question is, how far either the US or Beijing will allow this apparent game of chicken to go.

"I think both Washington and Beijing are clear about each other's basic positions. All actors probably are too," said Chong Ja Ian, an associate professor of political science at the National University of Singapore.

Pelosi's trip to Asia will include Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea and Japan, according to a press release from her office on Sunday, which made no mention of Taiwan.

"The uncertainty lies in how forcefully the US and [Beijing] are willing to support their positions," Chong said.

"Both Washington and Beijing have incentives to demonstrate resolve rather than to back down. In this regard, they are both likely to keep their red lines and areas that they could compromise on close to their chest."

Under such circumstances, no regional country can or should play an intermediary role between the two sparring superpowers, said Drew Thompson, visiting senior research fellow at the National University of Singapore's Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy.

"US-China political differences and geostrategic rivalry are not caused by a lack of communication or misunderstanding," he said, highlighting extensive bilateral diplomatic interactions between senior leaders, including direct hotline talks between presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping.

"An intermediary is unnecessary and no third party would add value to those conversations. Neither Beijing nor Washington is seeking an intermediary, so proposals for a third party to insert themselves into the bilateral relationship would not be welcomed."