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There's been a notable change in appetite for Gannett Co., Inc. (NYSE:GCI) shares in the week since its full-year report, with the stock down 13% to US$4.30. It looks like the results were pretty good overall. While revenues of US$2.5b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory losses were much smaller than expected, with Gannett losing US$0.18 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Gannett after the latest results.
Check out our latest analysis for Gannett
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the four analysts covering Gannett, is for revenues of US$2.42b in 2025. This implies a noticeable 3.5% reduction in Gannett's revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are forecast to narrow 2.8% to US$0.18 per share. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$2.49b and US$0.16 per share in losses. While this year's revenue estimates dropped there was also a notable increase in loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.
The analysts lifted their price target 15% to US$5.90, implicitly signalling that lower earnings per share are not expected to have a longer-term impact on the stock's value. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Gannett analyst has a price target of US$9.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$3.50. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. One more thing stood out to us about these estimates, and it's the idea that Gannett's decline is expected to accelerate, with revenues forecast to fall at an annualised rate of 3.5% to the end of 2025. This tops off a historical decline of 1.6% a year over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for companies in the broader industry, which suggest that revenues (in aggregate) are expected to grow 2.7% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while it does have declining revenues, the analysts also expect Gannett to suffer worse than the wider industry.