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It's been a good week for ON24, Inc. (NYSE:ONTF) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 2.3% to US$4.85. Revenues of US$35m were in line with expectations, although statutory losses per share were US$0.21, some 14% smaller than was expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
After the latest results, the consensus from ON24's five analysts is for revenues of US$137.9m in 2025, which would reflect a small 5.0% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 21% to US$0.75. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$139.7m and losses of US$0.78 per share in 2025. So there seems to have been a moderate uplift in analyst sentiment with the latest consensus release, given the upgrade to loss per share forecasts for this year.
View our latest analysis for ON24
Even with the lower forecast losses, the analysts lowered their valuations, with the average price target falling 27% to US$5.33. It looks likethe analysts have become less optimistic about the overall business. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic ON24 analyst has a price target of US$6.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$5.00. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that ON24 is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would also point out that the forecast 6.6% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2025 is better than the historical trend, which saw revenues shrink 12% annually over the past three years Compare this against analyst estimates for companies in the broader industry, which suggest that revenues (in aggregate) are expected to grow 12% annually. So while a broad number of companies are forecast to grow, unfortunately ON24 is expected to see its revenue affected worse than other companies in the industry.