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One of the biggest stories of last week was how Inogen, Inc. (NASDAQ:INGN) shares plunged 23% in the week since its latest annual results, closing yesterday at US$7.95. It was a respectable set of results; while revenues of US$336m were in line with analyst predictions, statutory losses were 11% smaller than expected, with Inogen losing US$1.52 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
See our latest analysis for Inogen
After the latest results, the four analysts covering Inogen are now predicting revenues of US$350.7m in 2025. If met, this would reflect a credible 4.5% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are forecast to narrow 3.7% to US$1.45 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$343.6m and losses of US$1.50 per share in 2025. So there seems to have been a moderate uplift in analyst sentiment with the latest consensus release, given the upgrades to both revenue and loss per share forecasts for this year.
It will come as no surprise to learn thatthe analysts have increased their price target for Inogen 5.3% to US$10.00on the back of these upgrades.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that Inogen is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to display 4.5% annualised growth until the end of 2025. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 0.3% annual decline over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 7.8% annually for the foreseeable future. So although Inogen's revenue growth is expected to improve, it is still expected to grow slower than the industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Fortunately, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, although our data indicates it is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.