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O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (NASDAQ:ORLY) came out with its full-year results last week, and we wanted to see how the business is performing and what industry forecasters think of the company following this report. O'Reilly Automotive reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of US$17b and statutory earnings per share of US$40.66, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
View our latest analysis for O'Reilly Automotive
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from O'Reilly Automotive's 26 analysts is for revenues of US$17.7b in 2025. This reflects a satisfactory 5.7% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to accumulate 7.6% to US$44.66. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$17.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$45.21 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
The consensus price target rose 5.7% to US$1,376despite there being no meaningful change to earnings estimates. It could be that the analystsare reflecting the predictability of O'Reilly Automotive's earnings by assigning a price premium. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values O'Reilly Automotive at US$1,550 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$870. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that O'Reilly Automotive's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 5.7% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 9.9% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 4.6% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like O'Reilly Automotive is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.