Uruguay Votes as Left-Wing Opposition Eyes Return to Presidency

(Bloomberg) -- Uruguay is on the cusp of becoming the latest country to oust an incumbent party this year, with violent crime and an economic recovery that has left many behind bolstering the hopes of the leftist opposition candidate in Sunday’s presidential election.

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Polling shows leftist Yamandu Orsi holding a slim lead over Alvaro Delgado, a former senior aide to President Luis Lacalle Pou, heading into election day, with the outcome likely hinging on which way a small pool of undecided voters breaks as the country heads to the polls.

A victory for Orsi and his Broad Front party would add Uruguay to the list of places in which disappointed voters have punished incumbents across a tumultuous year of votes — although absent in the the South American nation is the sort of fury-filled ideological swing that has hit the US, neighboring Argentina and a litany of other countries over the past year.

Orsi, 57, is pitching himself as the “safe change” candidate, while Delgado’s campaign slogan is to “re-elect a good government” in reference to the Covid-19 policies and job growth under Lacalle Pou. Both are running as predictable options rather than disruptive outsiders. Uruguayans, meanwhile, have already rejected a proposal to dismantle the country’s $23 billion pension system that had markets on edge about the nation’s safe-haven reputation.

It’s the sort of race that has come to typify famously stable Uruguay, a country of 3.4 million people that has avoided the populist firebrands that have roiled the region’s politics. Investor-friendly policies and its aversion to radical political change help rank the nation as one of Latin America’s wealthiest, with a tech sector that punches above its weight and cities like Montevideo and Punta del Este that serve as popular homes for foreign billionaires.

Even so Orsi has emerged as the slight favorite due to voter perceptions that Lacalle Pou, who won the 2019 election, has failed to fulfill promises to reduce crime and improve salaries — problems that have afflicted incumbent parties across the world in the pandemic’s wake.

“There is a certain degree of disillusionment among people who voted for the parties of the coalition in 2019 and feel defrauded with respect to the change they expected,” Eduardo Bottinelli, a director at pollster Factum, said in an interview.