September is a relatively volatile month for the stock market every year, under the pretense of one reason or another. However, with rate cuts around the corner, 2024 might be different.
Mona Mahajan, a senior investment strategist at Edward Jones, recently joined CNBC to discuss the importance of long-term investors leaning into market weakness. She believes that market volatility, such as that of this September, is an opportunity for investors to diversify their portfolios.
In August, the S&P 500 was up 18%, which, according to Mahajan, suggested an unsustainable rise that would most likely be met by a pullback or correction. Last week, the market experienced a 4.2% decline following this.
A series of weaker-than-expected economic reports on employment contributed to the market decline. These reports included job openings, ADP employment data, and non-farm payrolls. The most significant report, non-farm payrolls, was lower than anticipated. Additionally, downward revisions to previous economic data further spooked the market.
To balance this, the unemployment rate was brought down to 4.2%-4.3%, and 144,000 jobs were added. While this isn’t a big number, it shows that the economy is still improving. In a recession, job growth would be negative. Therefore, the current situation, while not ideal, is not indicative of a recession. In fact, the number of people filing for unemployment claims decreased on a week-to-week basis.
She advocates for long-term investors to take advantage of market downturns, as market volatility provides ideal entry points for investing in undervalued assets.
Mahajan also addressed the broader economic landscape, including the performance of large-cap technology stocks, which she noted may not be the haven they once were, as in 2023 or the first half of 2024. This suggests a need for investors to consider diversification beyond tech stocks. Still, she thinks that AI is a driving force in the market, suggesting that it will play a crucial role in various sectors over the next several years.
She says that historical patterns indicate that bull markets typically last longer than bear markets — the average S&P 500 bull market lasts about 5.6 years, which can encourage investors to maintain a long-term perspective rather than reacting impulsively to short-term market fluctuations.
In Mahajan’s view, for the S&P 500, a multiple of 17 seems reasonable. This valuation is generally on the higher end compared to historical levels over the past 15 years.
Interest rates are currently at a high point of 5.5% but are expected to decline over the next year or two. This potential rate-cutting cycle could positively impact stock valuations. While earnings growth for the current year has been revised downward to around 10%, it is still expected to be strong. Given these factors, it’s possible that the S&P 500’s multiple to exceed 17.
However, it’s important to note that election-driven volatility brings growth spurts for broadcasting media companies, with their revenues increasing because of the global advertising industry benefiting from political ad revenue due to election campaigns. We recently discussed this in another one of our articles, 10 Best Broadcasting Stocks to Buy. Here’s an excerpt from it:
“Forbes reported that the total spending reached $8.5 billion across TV, radio, and digital media in the last election cycle. This was 30% higher than the $6.7 billion projected earlier that year, and 108% more than spending in 2017-2018, which was a record at that time. GroupM projects a record-breaking $15.9 billion investment in political ad spending for the end of 2024.
Methodology
To compile our list, we sifted through ETFs, stock screeners, and online rankings to compile a list of 15 broadcasting stocks. We then selected 10 stocks that were shorted but at the same time popular among elite hedge funds and that analysts were bullish on. The hedge fund data was sourced from Insider Monkey’s database which tracks the moves of over 900 elite money managers. The stocks are ranked in ascending order of their short interest, as of August 15.
Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (see more details here).
A close-up of a radio broadcast tower reaching to the skies.
Short % of Shares Outstanding As of August 15: 0.11%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 5
Urban One Inc. (NASDAQ:UONE) is the largest African-American-owned broadcasting company in the US, with over 50 radio stations. For over 35 years, it has been the leading voice speaking to Black America, providing content, entertainment, and services that resonate with its audience.
The company generated $117.7 million in revenue for the second quarter of 2024, exhibiting a 9.2% year-over-year fall. This decline was mainly attributed to the cable TV and digital segment revenue, each of which fell by 21% and 16% respectively, year-over-year.
The challenges in the cable TV segment were mitigated through newer technological advancements, like using a connected TV ad server to improve the monetization of digital advertising inventory.
These revenue declines were partially offset by radio broadcasting revenue, which rose by 7.2%. The current political climate suggests that Urban One Inc. (NASDAQ:UONE) benefits from political ad revenue. While this boost is still anticipated, the non-political ad revenue dropped by 26.5% in Q2.
Despite challenges, the company is taking steps to improve its financial situation. It repurchased $35.5 million of its 2028 notes, reducing its debt. This positive development suggests that Urban One Inc. (NASDAQ:UONE) is on the right track and could be a good investment. 5 hedge fund holders are long in the company. Renaissance Technologies has the largest stake, valued at $464,858.
Overall UONE ranks 10th on our list of the worst broadcast stocks to buy. While we acknowledge the potential of UONE as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that AI stocks hold great promise for delivering high returns and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than UONE but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
