In This Article:
United Parcel Service UPS is scheduled to report its first-quarter 2025 results on Tuesday, April 29, 2025.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the March-quarter earnings is pegged at $1.42 per share, implying a 0.7% decrease from the year-ago quarter’s reported number. The estimate has been revised downward by seven cents over the past 60 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $21.06 billion, indicating a decline of 3% from the year-ago quarter’s actuals.
UPS has an impressive earnings surprise history as shown in the chart below.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Q1 Earnings Whispers for UPS
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for UPS this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat, which is not the case here.
The company's Earnings ESP is -4.08%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate is currently pegged at $1.36 per share, six cents below the Zacks Consensus Estimate. (See the Zacks Earnings Calendar to stay ahead of market-making news.)
UPS currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Factors Likely to Influence UPS’ Q1 Results
Shipping volumes at UPS are likely to have been hurt by geopolitical uncertainties and high inflation. The silver lining is that since the first quarter covered a period (January-March) of normal business and the new tariffs took effect in the second quarter, tariff woes are unlikely to get reflected in the numbers of the March quarter. We believe that more than the financial numbers, it is the guidance that investors will more closely watch.
Labor costs are likely to have been high, hurting United Parcel Service’s bottom-line performance in the March quarter. Low fuel costs are expected to have aided UPS’ bottom-line performance in the March-end quarter. We expect expenses on fuel to decrease 5.1% from first-quarter 2024 actuals. Crude oil has been struggling in 2025, with prices sliding to multi-month lows. Tariff concerns, weakening consumer confidence and production increase by OPEC+ have all contributed to this downward pressure.
Dismal Price Performance of UPS Stock
UPS stock has performed unimpressively on the bourses in a year. The stock has depreciated 32.9%, performing worse than its industry’s 29.7% decline in the same timeframe. The S&P 500 composite index rose 7% in the same time frame while the Zacks Transportation sector plunged 19.5%. UPS has also lagged its rival FedEx FDX and another industry player GXO Logistics GXO in a year.