Is Universal Music Group N.V.'s (AMS:UMG) Recent Stock Performance Influenced By Its Financials In Any Way?

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editorial-team@simplywallst.com (Simply Wall St)

Thu, Dec 5, 2024, 2:23 AM 4 min read

Universal Music Group's (AMS:UMG) stock up by 2.2% over the past week. As most would know, long-term fundamentals have a strong correlation with market price movements, so we decided to look at the company's key financial indicators today to determine if they have any role to play in the recent price movement. Specifically, we decided to study Universal Music Group's ROE in this article.

ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. In other words, it is a profitability ratio which measures the rate of return on the capital provided by the company's shareholders.

View our latest analysis for Universal Music Group

How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Universal Music Group is:

45% = €1.6b ÷ €3.5b (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2024).

The 'return' is the amount earned after tax over the last twelve months. Another way to think of that is that for every €1 worth of equity, the company was able to earn €0.45 in profit.

What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

A Side By Side comparison of Universal Music Group's Earnings Growth And 45% ROE

To begin with, Universal Music Group has a pretty high ROE which is interesting. Additionally, the company's ROE is higher compared to the industry average of 14% which is quite remarkable. Probably as a result of this, Universal Music Group was able to see a decent net income growth of 5.1% over the last five years.

We then compared Universal Music Group's net income growth with the industry and found that the company's growth figure is lower than the average industry growth rate of 13% in the same 5-year period, which is a bit concerning.

past-earnings-growth — ENXTAM:UMG Past Earnings Growth December 5th 2024

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. Is UMG fairly valued? This infographic on the company's intrinsic value has everything you need to know.

Is Universal Music Group Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?

While Universal Music Group has a three-year median payout ratio of 79% (which means it retains 21% of profits), the company has still seen a fair bit of earnings growth in the past, meaning that its high payout ratio hasn't hampered its ability to grow.

Moreover, Universal Music Group is determined to keep sharing its profits with shareholders which we infer from its long history of three years of paying a dividend. Existing analyst estimates suggest that the company's future payout ratio is expected to drop to 59% over the next three years. Still forecasts suggest that Universal Music Group's future ROE will drop to 35% even though the the company's payout ratio is expected to decrease. This suggests that there could be other factors could driving the anticipated decline in the company's ROE.

Conclusion

In total, it does look like Universal Music Group has some positive aspects to its business. Its earnings growth is decent, and the high ROE does contribute to that growth. However, investors could have benefitted even more from the high ROE, had the company been reinvesting more of its earnings. That being so, the latest analyst forecasts show that the company will continue to see an expansion in its earnings. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.