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It's been a good week for UMH Properties, Inc. (NYSE:UMH) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest full-year results, and the shares gained 6.1% to US$19.28. Revenues of US$164m arrived in line with expectations, although statutory losses per share were US$0.72, an impressive 36% smaller than what broker models predicted. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
View our latest analysis for UMH Properties
After the latest results, the three analysts covering UMH Properties are now predicting revenues of US$177.4m in 2021. If met, this would reflect a notable 8.4% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 61% to US$0.28. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$177.4m and losses of US$0.24 per share in 2021. While this year's revenue estimates held steady, there was also a noticeable increase in loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.
Despite expectations of heavier losses next year,the analysts have lifted their price target 17% to US$20.67, perhaps implying these losses are not expected to be recurring over the long term. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on UMH Properties, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$22.00 and the most bearish at US$16.50 per share. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that UMH Properties' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2021 expected to display 8.4% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 13% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 5.8% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while UMH Properties' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.