Ulta Beauty, Inc. (NASDAQ:ULTA) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 4.6% to US$318 in the week after its latest full-year results. Revenues were US$6.2b, approximately in line with expectations, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) performed substantially better. EPS of US$3.11 were also better than expected, beating analyst predictions by 11%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

View our latest analysis for Ulta Beauty

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Ulta Beauty's 25 analysts is for revenues of US$7.36b in 2022, which would reflect a solid 20% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 220% to US$10.00. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$7.30b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$10.70 in 2022. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

Despite cutting their earnings forecasts,the analysts have lifted their price target 8.6% to US$329, suggesting that these impacts are not expected to weigh on the stock's value in the long term. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Ulta Beauty analyst has a price target of US$375 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$221. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's clear from the latest estimates that Ulta Beauty's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 20% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2022 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 10.0% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 11% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Ulta Beauty to grow faster than the wider industry.