Ukraine crisis could create more woes for auto industry

NBC News · Stanislav Krasilnikov

As the crisis in Ukraine escalates and President Joe Biden puts in place new sanctions targeting the Russian economy, there could be substantial collateral damage to the auto industry, including automakers and parts suppliers in the U.S., Europe and Asia.

Russia is one of the world’s largest suppliers of several key metals, including palladium and nickel, used in auto manufacturing around the world. It’s also home to a sizable manufacturing base, which includes a number of plants owned by foreign manufacturers like Stellantis, Volkswagen and Toyota. With at least a quarter of the parts used in Russian-made vehicles coming from abroad — including from the U.S. — those assembly plants could have trouble continuing to operate while sanctions are in place, according to analysts and industry officials.

The impact of sanctions could also hit home. Russia is the world’s third-largest supplier of the nickel used in lithium-ion batteries, and it provides 40 percent of the palladium used in catalytic converters, which can be found in all gas and diesel-powered vehicles. If Russian President Vladamir Putin retaliates against the West by cutting off palladium supplies, “automakers would have to find alternative supplies or they wouldn’t be able to build vehicles with internal combustion engines,” said Sam Abuelsamid, principal auto analyst for Guidehouse Insights, a research firm.

South Africa and Zimbabwe also produce substantial amounts of palladium, but even before Russian troops crossed into two regions of Ukraine this week, the price of the rare metal was climbing fast. In mid-December, palladium dipped as low as $1,600 an ounce. On Wednesday, it had climbed to just over $2,400. Price increases like that could add $150 to the average cost of a new vehicle, and more than $200 to SUVs, pickups and sports cars with bigger engines.

Automakers would have to decide whether to swallow the added cost or pass it on to consumers at a time when prices for new vehicles are already running at record levels, topping $45,000 in January.

If nickel supplies are constrained that could slow the production of the batteries used in electric vehicles and deliver a blow to a major initiative of the Biden administration — to have electric vehicles account for up to half off all new autos by 2030.

There are additional sources of nickel — Indonesia and the Philippines the two largest — but demand and prices have been growing and automakers could face the same challenges as with palladium, according to Abuelsamid.

Russian automakers also have reason to worry. They depend on foreign sources for 25 percent of the parts needed to keep their own auto assembly plants running. One manufacturer, the Gaz Group, has publicly warned that it will have to halt production if sanctions are enacted. Gaz produces light- and medium-duty commercial vehicles, buses and automotive components for domestic and export markets.