UBS Group AG (UBS): A Good Undervalued Stock to Invest In Now
We recently compiled a list of the 16 Most Undervalued Stocks to Buy Now. In this article, we are going to take a look at where UBS Group AG (NYSE:UBS) stands against the other undervalued stocks.
With the US stock market touching record highs, mainly driven by significant contributions from big technology sectors, domestic and global investors continue to observe market dynamics to tap potential opportunities. Therefore, identifying undervalued stocks becomes important as they might provide substantial value amidst high valuations across sectors.
Concentration of S&P 500
Courtesy of “Magnificent 7” stocks that captured investor attention in 2024, the market cap concentration in the leading US equities is the highest in decades. Strategists at Goldman Sachs believe the 10 largest US stocks now constitute ~33% of the S&P 500 index’s market value. This is well above the ~27% share reached at the peak of the tech bubble which was seen in 2000.
The present concentration helped in driving a period of strong US market returns. The market saw an annualized total return of ~16% over the previous 5 years. This compares to the 30-year annual average of 10%. As per Goldman Sachs, the top 10 stocks made up for over a third of that gain. That being said, “today’s top stocks are trading at lower valuations than the largest stocks did at the peak of the tech bubble in 2000.”
Despite healthy returns, investors are anxious regarding the extreme current degree of market concentration relative to the recent history.
There appear to be similarities between the current conditions today and the episodes in 1973 and 2000. The labor market seems to be in a decent state, and concentration has been rising along with robust equity market returns. In these episodes, the peak of equity market concentration also led to the peak of a bull market, and the US economy saw recessionary fears in the subsequent year.
However, the 1964 experience reflects that an ongoing bull market might continue to move higher despite a decline in market concentration. After the market concentration peaked, stock prices and the US economy were resilient for an extended period.
Are The US Stocks Overvalued or Undervalued?
The valuations of the largest stocks are well below the previous highs. As of now, the 10 largest stocks continue to trade at the collective forward P/E multiple of ~25x, well below the peak valuations seen in the largest stocks in 2000, 2020, and the middle of 2023.
The valuations are also lower based on the premium the largest stocks are trading at relative to the rest of the market. That is to say that the ~35% valuation premium today remains well below the 80% premium seen in the middle of 2023 and the 100% premium of 2000. Though the degree of market cap concentration is indeed higher today as compared to the peak touched in 2000, the largest stocks are trading at much lower multiples than during the technology bubble.
Our methodology
We used the Finviz screener to extract the list of 16 Most Undervalued Stocks to Buy Now. We have shortlisted the stocks that are expected to report earnings growth this year and have a forward P/E multiple of less than ~21.66x (as the market trades at the forward multiple of ~21.66x). We ranked the stocks in ascending order of their hedge fund sentiment.
Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points. (see more details here).
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UBS Group AG (NYSE:UBS)
Forward P/E as of August 22: 20.83x
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 33
Expected EPS Growth this Year: 350.99%
UBS Group AG (NYSE:UBS) is the world's largest wealth manager and is the product of multiple mergers over the years. Apart from wealth and asset management, the company operates a universal bank in Switzerland and a global investment bank.
UBS Group AG (NYSE:UBS) saw a net profit of $2.9 billion for 1H 2024, with a return on CET1 capital of 9.2%. The company’s management highlighted its successful strides in integrating Credit Suisse, and its commitment to wrap up the process by 2026 end. UBS Group AG (NYSE:UBS) saw a strong performance in its core businesses and is on track with the capital return plans, such as dividends and buybacks.
The company is now focused on reducing its costs by focusing on client account and platform migrations. Notably, integration-related expenses are expected to be ~70% of the total cost to achieve 2026 efficiency targets by year-end. It continues to make strong progress post the acquisition of Credit Suisse, maintaining a healthy financial position and advancing toward the integration goals.
In 2H 2024, as a result of the acquisition, UBS Group AG (NYSE:UBS) is expected to unlock the next phase of cost, capital, funding, and tax benefits. Three analysts have given a “Hold” rating and 4 analysts have assigned a “Buy” rating to the stock. 33 out of 920 hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey held stakes in UBS Group AG (NYSE:UBS) as of the end of the second quarter.
Patient Capital Management, a value investing firm, released its 4Q 2023 investor letter and mentioned UBS Group AG (NYSE:UBS). Here is what the fund said:
“UBS Group AG (NYSE:UBS) is a name we opportunistically purchased following the banking crisis earlier in the year. UBS benefited from buying its largest local competitor, Credit Suisse, for an 80% discount from where it was trading before the crisis. We bought after the deal, believing the market’s myopic focus on short-term integration risks failed to properly value the attractive set of assets. While the stock has done well since then, we still believe it is underappreciating the long-term return potential of the business.”
Overall UBS ranks 14th on our list of the most undervalued stocks to buy. While we acknowledge the potential of UBS as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some deeply undervalued AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for a deeply undervalued AI stock that is more promising than UBS but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.