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United Airlines UAL is set to release its fourth-quarter 2024 results on Jan. 21, after market close.
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The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2024 earnings has been revised 1.7% upward in the past 60 days and is pegged at $3.01 per share. Additionally, the consensus mark implies a 50.5% uptick from the year-ago actual. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2024 revenues is pegged at $14.4 billion, indicating a 5.6% upward movement from the year-ago actual.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
UAL has a stellar earnings surprise history, as reflected in the chart below.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Q4 Earnings Whispers for UAL
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for UAL this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat, which is the case here.
The company's Earnings ESP is +1.57%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate currently stands at $3.06 per share, higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.01. UAL currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
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Factors to Note
Upbeat passenger volumes are expected to have boosted UAL’s top-line performance in the December quarter. Notably, the majority of passenger revenues are likely to have come from domestic markets. Having said that, international passenger revenues are also likely to have been strong in the quarter to be reported with demand for international flights being robust.
United Airlines’ strong presence in international markets is likely to have driven international passenger revenues. Upbeat passenger volumes during the winter holiday period are likely to have boosted the top-line performance in the to-be-reported quarter. The Chicago-based carrier's transatlantic bookings for the 2024 winter were 30% higher than pre-COVID levels. We expect total passenger revenues to increase 5.9% in the fourth quarter of 2024 from year-ago actuals.
Low oil prices are expected to have aided the bottom line. We expect the fuel price per gallon in the December quarter to be $2.81. Our estimate indicates a 10.1% decline from year-ago actuals. High labor costs are likely to have hurt the bottom line.
UAL’s Price Performance & Valuation
Driven by upbeat air travel demand, UAL shares have performed exceedingly well over the past year, gaining in triple digits and outperforming its industry, the S&P 500 index and fellow airlines, Delta Air Lines DAL and American Airlines AAL.