Stocks tumble, crude oil surges on OPEC deal

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Stock got slammed during Friday’s trading session, while crude oil (CL=F) surged.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) slumped 2.33%, or 62.87 points, and had its worst week in more than eight months as of market close. The Dow (^DJI) sank 558.72 points, or 2.24%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (^IXIC) tumbled 3.05%, or 219.01 points. Technology was the worst-performing sector during Friday’s selloff.

Crude oil soared 2.18% and settled at $52.61 per barrel after OPEC agreed to cut production by 1.2 million barrels per day during the second day of negotiations in Vienna. This was the commodity’s best weekly performance in more than two months.

Job growth continues to be positive, but slowed in November. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 155,000 in November, which was below economists’ expectations for 198,000. Also, the Bureau of Labor Statistics revised October’s jobs number down to 237,000 from the 250,000 initially reported.

The unemployment held steady at 3.7%, as expected. Average hourly earnings in November rose 0.2% over the month of October and 3.1% over last year.

All of this continues the market theme in which market volatility has clashed with firm economic data.

“The fear of additional U.S. trade taxes is really not being well received, and investors seem to see the risk as rising,” UBS economist Paul Donovan said of this week’s market sell-off. “Otherwise, economic data was generally pretty good.”

JPMorgan’s top quant Marko Kolanovic bluntly argues that markets have disconnected from reality.

“Positive GDP and earnings are ‘reality,’ which is currently starkly disconnected from equity sentiment, valuation, and positioning,” Kolanovic said in a note to clients on Friday. He pointed to price-earnings ratios being near five-year lows and hedge funds being underexposed to stocks.

Stocks have disconnected from reality, JP Morgan’s Marko Kolanovic argues.
Stocks have disconnected from reality, JP Morgan’s Marko Kolanovic argues.

Regarding the weaker-than-expected November jobs data, economists aren’t yet ready to sound an alarm.

“The slightly more modest 155,000 gain in payroll employment in November may not go down well in markets given the heightened nervousness in recent months, but this is still a solid gain that suggests economic growth is gradually slowing back towards its potential pace,” Capital Economics’ Paul Ashworth said. “There is nothing here to suggest the economy is suffering a more sudden downturn.”

Mark Hamrick, Bankrate.com’s senior economic analyst, said, “As the Federal Reserve looks at the employment data going into the next meeting, it likely remains on track to raise rates by a quarter of a point. The bigger question remains what it will signal regarding the trajectory of rates, or the number of rate hikes, in the year ahead. Investors clearly want the Fed to cool it with rate hikes amid concerns about trade and tariffs, risks for global growth and the slowdown in the housing market.”