U.S Mortgage Rates Rise, with War in Ukraine Driving Market Volatility

Mortgage rates rose for the first time in 3-weeks.

In the week ending 10th March, 30-year fixed rates increased by 9 basis points to 3.85%. 30-year fixed rates had fallen by 13 basis points in the week prior.

Year-on-year, 30-year fixed rates were up by 80 basis points.

30-year fixed rates were still down by 109 basis points since November 2018’s last peak of 4.94%.

Economic Data from the Week

It was a particularly quiet first half of the week, with economic data from the U.S limited to trade data and JOLTs job opening figures. While the stats were skewed to the negative, the numbers had a muted impact on yields and the Greenback.

Economic data from the U.S took a back seat for another week, as news updates on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine directed U.S Treasury yields.

Freddie Mac Rates

The weekly average rates for new mortgages, as of 10th March, were quoted by Freddie Mac to be:

  • 30-year fixed rates rose by 9 basis points to 3.85% in the week. This time last year, rates had stood at 3.05%. The average fee remained unchanged at 0.8 points.

  • 15-year fixed rates increased by 8 basis points to 3.09% in the week. Rates were up by 71 basis points from 2.38% a year ago. The average fee remained unchanged at 0.8 points.

  • 5-year fixed rates rose by 6 basis points to 2.97%. Rates were up by 20 basis points from 2.77% a year ago. The average fee remained unchanged at 0.3 points.

According to Freddie Mac,

  • Mortgage rates tracked U.S Treasury yields higher in the week.

  • Long-term, rates are expected to continue rising alongside inflation.

  • Near-term, uncertainty about the war in Ukraine will likely continue to drive rate volatility.

Mortgage Bankers’ Association Rates

For the week ending 4th March, the rates were:

  • Average interest rates for 30-year fixed with conforming loan balances fell from 4.15% to 4.09%. Points remained unchanged at 0.44 (incl. origination fee) for 80% LTV loans.

  • Average 30-year fixed mortgage rates backed by FHA decreased from 4.15% to 4.12%. Points fell from 0.74 to 0.73 (incl. origination fee) for 80% LTV loans.

  • Average 30-year rates for jumbo loan balances declined from 3.88% to 3.79%. Points fell from 0.40 to 0.39 (incl. origination fee) for 80% LTV loans.

Weekly figures released by the Mortgage Bankers Association showed that the Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 8.5% in the week ending 4th March. The index had slipped by 0.7% in the previous week.

The Refinance Index increased by 9% and was 50% lower than the same week a year ago. In the week prior, the Index had risen 1%.