U.S Mortgage Rates Rise on COVID-19 Vaccine Optimism

Mortgage rates rose for the 2nd time in 3-weeks in the week ending 12th November. Reversing a 3 basis point fall to a 12th record low 2.78% in the week prior, the 30-year fixed rate rose by 6 basis points.

Compared to this time last year, 30-year fixed rates were down by 91 basis points.

30-year fixed rates were also down by 210 basis points since November 2018’s most recent peak of 4.94%.

Economic Data from the Week

Economic data was on the lighter side in the 1st half of the week.

Key stats included JOLTs job openings for September. A fall in job openings from August’s 6.493m to 6.440m had a muted impact on yields and risk sentiment, however.

Impressive COVID-19 vaccine trial results from Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech SE drove demand for riskier assets early in the week. Pfizer Inc. reported more than a 90% efficacy rate from 3rd phase of vaccine trials on Monday.

The impressive results nullified any concerns over the continued rise in new COVID-19 cases globally.

Biden’s Presidential Election victory announcement from the weekend prior was also considered positive for riskier assets. The markets were also convinced that Trump’s lawsuits and state recounts would fail to overturn the result.

Freddie Mac Rates

The weekly average rates for new mortgages as of 12th November were quoted by Freddie Mac to be:

  • 30-year fixed rates increased by 6 basis points to 2.84% in the week. Rates were down from 3.75% from a year ago. The average fee remained steady at 0.7 points.

  • 15-year fixed rates rose by 2 basis points to 2.34% in the week. Rates were down from 3.20% a year ago. The average fee held steady at 0.6 points.

  • 5-year fixed rates jumped by 22 basis points to 3.11% in the week. Rates were down by 33 points from last year’s 3.44%. The average fee rose from 0.3 points to 0.4 points.

According to Freddie Mac,

  • Mortgage rates jumped as a result of positive news about a COVID-19 vaccine.

  • Despite the rise, mortgage rates remain about a percentage point below a year ago.

  • The low rate environment is supportive of both purchase and refinance demand.

  • Heading into late fall, the housing market continues to grow and buttress the economy.

Mortgage Bankers’ Association Rates

For the week ending 6th November, rates were quoted to be:

  • Average interest rates for 30-year fixed, backed by the FHA, remained unchanged at 3.08%. Points rose from 0.26 to 0.37 (incl. origination fee) for 80% LTV loans.

  • Average interest rates for 30-year fixed with conforming loan balances fell from 3.01% to a survey low 2.98%. Points decreased from 0.38 to 0.35 (incl. origination fee) for 80% LTV loans.

  • Average 30-year rates for jumbo loan balances decreased from 3.18% to 3.13%. Points increased from 0.30 to 0.31 (incl. origination fee) for 80% LTV loans.