U.S Mortgage Rates – Onwards and Upwards

The upward trend in mortgage rates resumed last week, in spite of a pullback in 10-year Treasury yields, with more pain on the horizon for prospective home buyers. · FX Empire

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That was another week to remember in the financial markets and for prospective home buyers, with the FED making its much anticipated March rate hike, while President Trump roiled the markets with the introduction of, not only tariffs on steel and aluminium imports into the U.S but also a $50bn tariff on Chinese goods bound for the U.S.

For prospective home buyers, the fact that the FED held on to its 3 rate hike projection for the year, coupled with an improved outlook towards the U.S economy was certainly a positive and may have been a favourable near-term outcome, all things considered, but there may be trouble ahead should economic conditions continue to remain favourable.

10-year Treasury yields would have certainly had a different movement through the week, if the market panic over the prospects of a trade war hadn’t developed in response to Trump’s tariffs, the markets jumping into the safety of U.S Treasuries through the 2nd half of the week.

Assuming that a trade war is averted, economic data out of the U.S last week was relatively upbeat and could well push the FED to take a more aggressive path towards policy normalization.

It’s also worth noting that, while 10-year Treasury yields have been on a downward trend in recent weeks, the upward trend in mortgage rates has resumed. 10-year Treasury yields ended last week at 2.81%, down from the previous week’s 2.84% and the week prior’s 2.89%.

Freddie Mac rates for new mortgages last week were quoted to be:

  • 30-year fixed rate loan rose to from 4.44% to 4.45% last week, while up from 4.23% a year ago.

  • 15-year fixed rates rose from 3.90% to 3.91%, while up from 3.44% from a year ago.

  • 5-year fixed rates stood at 3.68%, up from the previous week’s 3.67% and from last year’s 3.24%.

Average interest rates for 30-year fixed, backed by the FHA decreased from 4.73% to 4.69%, pulling back from last week’s almost 7-year high, while the average interest rate for 30-year fixed with conforming loan balances decreased from 4.69% to 4.68%, sitting just shy of last week’s 4-year high. 30-year rates for jumbo loan balances held steady at 4.55%, following last week’s 0.1 percentage point drop.

Last week’s 1 basis point increase in 30-year fixed mortgage rates was certainly not too bad an outcome for home buyers deciding to get moving, with the upward trend resuming following last week’s fall in rates.

Till now, the upward trend in mortgage rates has failed to deter home buyers from jumping into the property market, with existing home sales rising by 3% in February, according to figures released last week. The increase offset January’s 3.2% fall, taking existing home sales to 5.54m on an annualized basis.