As the harvest season nears its end, cotton producers across the High Plains are hopeful for a higher yield compared to last year, yet they still approach the final yield with caution.
Still a month ago in Lockney, Mike Lass was optimistic that this year would bring a substantially better harvest than last. In early October, he told the Lubbock Avalanche-Journal he had planned to harvest all 500 acres, combined with dryland and irrigated cotton, but just a week later, the hail came.
Now, he'll only bring 30 of his 500 planted acres to harvest, following a year with only 50 acres of irrigated cotton; all his dryland died.
"(I still think) we'll be better than last year, believe it or not," Lass said, noting that this year's pound per acre is slightly better due to early summer rains. "I've already made more modules on 30 acres than I did my 50 (irrigated) acres last year. But what works this year won't work next year, and so on. You've always gotta go with what you think."
When asked if he wished he had known this back in July, when it was time to abandon cotton due to extreme temperatures and drought, Lass joked that "ignorance is bliss."
Mark Carroll with the Texas A&M Extension Office in Floyd County couldn't immediately provide the most up-to-date yield numbers, but he was certain they will end up below normal as Floyd County ends harvest this week.
The same hail storm that ruined Lass' crop also heavily damaged the local pumpkin crops early last month, just ahead of their peak demand.
At the time, Carroll noted it was unusual to receive such severe hail during during the fall season.
According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's most recent cotton and wool outlook, released on Oct. 16, global cotton production is anticipated to reach 112.6 million bales, about 3.2% lower than the previous year with China in the lead for production.
In the U.S., cotton production is expected to reach 12.5 million bales, which is just slightly more than 10% less than last season's yield of 14 million bales -- one of the lowest yields in the nation's history. According to the report, the Southwest region, which includes the South Plains, the regional yield is forecast at 4.2 million bales, a 20% increase from the previous year, which saw a drought-riddle crop and was the smallest in 30 years.
This article originally appeared on Lubbock Avalanche-Journal: U.S. expects lower cotton production, South Plains could see uptick from last year