By Shrutee Sarkar and Indradip Ghosh

BENGALURU (Reuters) - A now-robust U.S. economy will soon lose momentum on rising interest rates and escalating trade disputes, according to economists polled by Reuters who nonetheless gave just a one-in-three chance of a recession over the next two years.

The July 18-23 poll of over 100 forecasters showed the U.S. economy, set to hit a growth rate of 4.1 percent in the quarter just ended, will lose some of its shine with growth easing each quarter, slipping to about half that rate in the final three months of 2019.

"The upcoming GDP report (for Q2) is likely to be impressive, but we do not expect similar results in coming quarters. Some of the engines that fuelled activity in the trade sector are likely to be temporary," said Michael Moran, chief economist at Daiwa Capital Markets.

"We suspect that hindsight will show Q2 to be a spurt in growth rather than the beginning of a firmer trajectory."

Economists have ratcheted up forecasts for the April-June quarter based on huge tax cuts for businesses and individuals that were passed late last year.

But the latest poll consensus for the second quarter is below the previous high of 5 percent in the third quarter of 2014, and less than the 5.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009, which is the highest since the financial crisis.

Similarly, every one of last year's top 10 most accurate forecasters who provided a quarterly figure predicted GDP growth of 4 percent or higher in the second quarter. But all of them expect that to be a peak, too.

That is largely attributed to U.S. President Donald Trump's promise for more import tariffs and increasing concerns of further retaliation from China and other trading partners and its impact.

With the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge hitting its target of 2 percent in May for the first time in six years and set to rise further, the central bank is expected to plough ahead with its planned interest rate hikes.

While all economists polled forecast the Fed to keep rates on hold when it meets July 31-Aug 1, the central bank was expected to hike by 25 basis points in September and once more before the end of this year, taking the fed funds rate to 2.25-2.50 percent.

But the median showed only two hikes next year, compared to three increases based on the Fed's own dot plots.

"Strong economic growth and rising core inflation should prompt the Fed to raise rates four times over the next 12 months," wrote Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics, in a note to clients.