We recently published a list of 10 Best Bank Stocks To Invest In For the Long Term. In this article, we are going to take a look at where U.S. Bancorp (NYSE:USB) stands against other best bank stocks to invest in for the long term.
Following the 2024 US presidential election, the banking industry has generated quite a lot of returns on the stock market. Bank stocks are dependent on interest rates, the lending environment, and the costs they incur. While higher rates mean that banks can increase their spread and boost interest earnings, if the rates remain high for too long, then the demand for capital dries up in the industry which affects the amount of money they can lend.
Additionally, higher rates also mean that for some banks, particularly those geared towards consumers, interest expenses also jump since they have to pay out hefty amounts to account holders. The high interest costs experienced by these banks don’t mean that those focused on investment banking are spared the ire of high rates. Investment banks suffer from reduced market activity during periods of high interest rates since most investors prefer the comfort of deposit accounts and other vehicles to enjoy risk-free interest income.
These principles have been evident on the balance sheets of some of the biggest banks in America during the Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate hiking cycle. As an example, consider the H1 2024 results of America’s second-largest bank by asset size. For the six months ending in June 2023, the bank earned $61 billion in interest income. This marked a strong 118% annual growth as the bank basked in the two-decade-high interest rate era in the United States. At the same time, however, the firm’s interest expenses sat at $32.4 billion to mark an even greater 731% annual jump. As a result, while pre-expense interest income grew by triple-digit percentages, after accounting for interest expense, the net interest income marked a 19% growth and was $28.6 billion.
Similarly, higher rates also mean that banks focused on investment markets end up struggling. This has been the case for America’s fifth-largest bank by asset size. While Wall Street in 2023 and 2024 has seen broader indexes driven by investors’ AI euphoria, in 2022, the markets faced one of their worst years in recent history. Back then, the Federal Reserve unleashed back-to-back 75 basis point interest rate hikes, and most stocks that were not geared to withstand the new economic conditions ushered by the high rates stumbled. From the start of 2022 to the market’s bottom in October, the flagship S&P index had lost 24.8% while the broader NASDAQ’s technology focus meant that it lost a heftier 34%.
Naturally, the fifth largest bank in America which derived 61% of its noninterest revenue from market-making and investment banking operations as of H1 2024 didn’t thrive in this environment. During H1 2022, its investment banking income dropped by 44% to $3.9 billion since it was accompanied by an even sharper drop of 49% for the second quarter. For the full year, the bank recorded a 95% drop in its 2021 ‘Other principal transaction’ revenue of $11.6 billion. This line item included revenue from its “equity investing activities, including revenues related to our consolidated investments (included in Asset & Wealth Management), and debt investing and lending activities (included across our three segments).”
During the Q4 2022 earnings call, management commented on the tough year. CEO David Solomon shared how while his firm was eager to cut costs, it had to ensure that it kept up with competitors in retaining talent. The bank’s stock fell by 6% in early trading following the earnings as investors were spooked by the fact that operating expenses jumped by 11% at a time when revenue fell by 16% and profit dropped by a painful 66%.
Back then, Solomon also shared how high rates and a tight economy had made things difficult for his firm:
“Simply said, our quarter was disappointing and our business mix proved particularly challenging. These results are not what we aspire to deliver to shareholders. We generated revenues of $10.6 billion and net earnings of $1.3 billion and earnings per share of $3.32. After nine straight quarters of double-digit returns, fourth quarter performance was certainly an outlier. Results were impacted by several near-term challenges given the difficult operating environment. On the revenue front, underwriting volumes remained extremely muted despite green shoots that appeared at the end of the third quarter.
While the incoming Trump administration’s perceived business friendliness and its effects on the economy are one reason the S&P’s bank stock index jumped by 12% after the elections, another reason is regulations. Investors believe that the incoming administration will not be as strict with the big banks. Heading into the elections, regulations were at the forefront of the industry’s concerns as we discussed in our coverage of 10 Best Diversified Bank Stocks to Buy Now. Now, banks are hoping that Basel III Endgame, fair lending rules, heads of regulatory bodies, and private lending are some areas that the new administration might provide them some relief with.
Our Methodology
To make our list of the best bank stocks to buy for the long term, we first ranked all US-traded bank stocks by their market capitalization. Out of these, the 40 most valuable stocks in terms of market capitalization were re-ranked by the number of hedge funds that had bought the shares in Q3 2024.
Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (see more details here).
Why U.S. Bancorp (USB) is the Best Bank Stock To Invest In For the Long Term?
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U.S. Bancorp (NYSE:USB) is an American regional banking behemoth. As of Q3, it had a whopping $686 billion in assets and roughly 70,000 total employees. When compared to some of its peers, U.S. Bancorp (NYSE:USB)’s shares have been lackluster in 2024 as they have gained a modest 18%. The share performance is due to the fact that the bank has struggled to balance between its interest income growth and the corresponding rise in interest expense. During the first nine months of 2024, U.S. Bancorp (NYSE:USB)’s net interest income dropped by 8.6% as despite higher interest income its interest expenses out-shot the interest income growth. Consequently, the impact of lower interest rates on the bank’s interest expense is a key factor driving its hypothesis. Additionally, U.S. Bancorp (NYSE:USB) benefits from the fact that discretionary services such as card payments and mortgages account for 40% of its $20.4 billion in net revenue as of the first nine months of 2024. The high percentage exposes it to sectors that typically do well in a high consumer spending and low interest rate environment.
Meridian Funds mentioned U.S. Bancorp (NYSE:USB) in its Q2 2024 investor letter. Here is what the fund said:
“U.S. Bancorp (NYSE:USB) provides banking, payments, investment, trust, and mortgage services to consumers, businesses, and institutions. We own the company because of its historically strong profitability and consistent dividend payouts. The stock underperformed in the quarter due to a downward revision in net interest income guidance, driven by the ongoing shift from non-interest-bearing deposits to higher-cost interest-bearing accounts. To help mitigate the lower net interest income, management is focused on expense control initiatives. We are holding our position in U.S. Bancorp as we monitor the trajectory of net interest income and the success of these expense reductions.”
Overall, USB ranks 7th on our list of best bank stocks to invest in for the long term. While we acknowledge the potential of USB as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than USB but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
