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The gut-wrenching tug of war between rising interest rates and falling stock prices seems to be taking a rest, and strategists say the worst of the February correction may be over for now.
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Stocks closed out their fifth day of gains, with the S&P 500 just 4.9 percent away from its all-time high.
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"I think we've seen the low, but I don't know if we make a new high," said Bob Doll, chief equity strategist and senior portfolio manager at Nuveen Asset Management.
The gut-wrenching tug of war between rising interest rates and falling stock prices seems to be taking a rest, and strategists say the worst of the February correction may be over for now.
Stocks closed out their fifth day of gains, with the S&P 500 now just 4.9 percent away from its all-time high. Its sudden and swift correction of just over 10 percent lasted all of nine trading days. The S&P gained 1.2 percent Thursday, closing at 2,731, about 9 points above the technically important 50-day moving average.
But strategists say they are more comfortable that the quick comeback of the market could be signaling a now more stable market — but a more volatile one.
"I think we've seen the low, but I don't know if we make a new high," said Bob Doll, chief equity strategist and senior portfolio manager at Nuveen Asset Management. "My year-end target since Jan. 1 is 2,800 ... I think we bounce around with reasonable volatility as we digest and absorb all the shocks that happened."
Bond yields were lower Thursday, but only after the 10-year Treasury yield hit a new four-year high of 2.94 percent. Just a few days earlier, that would have sent stocks swooning.
"I think the markets have understood maybe there's a new range of interest rates. It's not 2 to 2.5 percent. It's 2.5 to maybe 3.25, and markets have determined that's okay," said Jim Caron, fixed-income portfolio strategist at Morgan Stanley Investment Management. Last year's high in the 10-year was 2.63 percent, and it ended the year at 2.40 percent.
The stock market's wild sell-off started when interest rates moved up, after a surprise jump in wage inflation in the January employment report two weeks ago on Feb. 2. Consumer inflation this week was another shocker, but the stock market took that in stride and rallied hard even though Treasury yields gained.
"I think the low-rate, low-volatility environment is over. It doesn't mean rates can't go back down," said Caron. The Treasury market, as yields rise, is also adjusting for the first time in a long time to the view that the Fed may keep to its rate-hiking forecast of at least three hikes this year and more for next year.