Baby Boomers and television came of age together and sustained one another through their prosperous prime. Will Boomers and TV as we know it die together, too?
New analysis of television viewing trends shows the TV audience is aging much faster than previously believed, as Americans under the age of 50 turn away from network programming, even when DVR-captured delayed viewing is included.
Media analyst Michael Nathanson of MoffettNathanson Research says the median age of the TV audience in the 2013-14 season rose 6%, or 2.5 years, to 44.4 years, from four years earlier. In the past five years, he says, the age of the typical TV viewer has advanced 5% faster than that of the average American. (The 2012 U.S. Census report has the median age of the American population at 37.2).
This “ratings-weighted average age” has climbed by 7% in the past few years among broadcast networks, to 53.9 years, and 8% for cable networks, to 40 years.
Tablets and time-shifting
The climb in broad TV audience age is almost entirely due to the rapid decline in traditional TV viewership by younger people – but not only the very young. Nathanson calculates primetime live viewing is down 13% since 2010, yet it has not dropped measurably among those over age 55. Even as older viewers maintain their traditional tube time, a separate Nielsen study found those between 50 and 64 watched 19 minutes of digital video last quarter, up from 11 minutes a year earlier.
Nathanson's results are based on Nielsen ratings, which capture “live + 7” viewing, or shows watched live or within a week on TV via a digital video recorder or video on demand. They don’t include shows watched on tablets or phones, or those viewed beyond seven days from original broadcast. Yet those live or near-live programs are the ones advertisers principally use to reach the still-large pools of consumers network shows are created for.
The graying of the TV audience has a few big implications for the media industry. Advertisers and TV executives for years have focused on ratings within “the demo” – people between age 18 and 49 – almost to the exclusion of others.
Standard wisdom has held that advertisers seek younger viewers because their brand loyalties are still shifting, making them susceptible to marketing messages. Companies still are willing to pay a premium to get at these coveted consumers, but as they become an ever-smaller part of the TV audience, programmers may no longer try to fashion shows for them.
Nathanson says he was prompted to examine the age breakdown of TV ratings by a reader of his reports “who also happens to be a senior cable network research executive,” who suggested that “more networks are now competing for older demographics and focusing less on the more ‘elusive’ younger demos.”