It is doubtless a positive to see that the Tupperware Brands Corporation (NYSE:TUP) share price has gained some 77% in the last three months. But spare a thought for the long term holders, who have held the stock as it bled value over the last five years. Like a ship taking on water, the share price has sunk 81% in that time. So we don't gain too much confidence from the recent recovery. The fundamental business performance will ultimately determine if the turnaround can be sustained. While a drop like that is definitely a body blow, money isn't as important as health and happiness.
So let's have a look and see if the longer term performance of the company has been in line with the underlying business' progress.
See our latest analysis for Tupperware Brands
While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
During the five years over which the share price declined, Tupperware Brands' earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 8.9% each year. This reduction in EPS is less than the 28% annual reduction in the share price. This implies that the market is more cautious about the business these days. The less favorable sentiment is reflected in its current P/E ratio of 5.65.
The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
It's probably worth noting we've seen significant insider buying in the last quarter, which we consider a positive. On the other hand, we think the revenue and earnings trends are much more meaningful measures of the business. Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here..
What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?
We've already covered Tupperware Brands' share price action, but we should also mention its total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR attempts to capture the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested) as well as any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings offered to shareholders. Tupperware Brands' TSR of was a loss of 78% for the 5 years. That wasn't as bad as its share price return, because it has paid dividends.
A Different Perspective
We regret to report that Tupperware Brands shareholders are down 54% for the year. Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 18%. Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 12% per year over five years. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Tupperware Brands (at least 1 which makes us a bit uncomfortable) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.