Trump Throws a Monkey-Wrench Into GOP Primary Hopes

Billionaire real estate mogul and celebrity TV host Donald Trump spent much of last week engaged in a high-profile battle with Spanish-language television network Univision and accusing the Mexican government of interfering in his business deals. Because really, nothing says “elect me to run the government and keep watch over the nuclear launch codes” like airing your business disputes on Twitter and attacking the leadership of a neighboring country.

It’s a prime example of why, since the moment Trump announced that he was planning to run for the Republican presidential nomination, the GOP has been getting increasingly nervous. It’s not because anybody expects him to win, but because if a combination of money and name recognition can earn him enough support in public opinion polls to muscle his way into the presidential debates, he could throw enough verbal bombs to screw things up for all the other candidates.

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During the 2012 Republican primary, which was often compared to a “clown car” as candidates blundered during debates, was a disaster for the GOP. It was expensive, and left Mitt Romney, the eventual nominee, much further to the right than he wanted to be, as well as substantially damaged by his opponents’ concerted attacks.

Avoiding needless acrimony in the primary is a major goal for the Republican National Committee this time around, but Trump’s current status may subvert that plan and make history repeat itself in the 2016 cycle.

Trump actually came in second in a Fox News poll last week, trailing only former Florida governor Jeb Bush. He also placed second to Bush in a Suffolk University poll of voters in the key primary state of New Hampshire. At the moment, Trump is safely ensconced among the GOP’s top 10 candidates, which clears the bar for competing in the first debate to be held in Cleveland in August.

The Univision blow-up this week will probably be good for Trump, in that it grabbed attention and will focus many primary voters concerned about illegal immigration on Trump’s strong anti-immigration stance. But what’s good for Trump is decidedly not good for a GOP working hard to repair its image with Hispanics. And, it demonstrates exactly why the party is concerned about a Trump candidacy.

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Trump, who in his presidential kickoff speech suggested that the majority of Mexicans who try to enter the United States illegally are rapists or drug dealers, got some unsurprising pushback from the good people south of the border, who took his remarks personally.