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In what is already expected to be an eventful month for ocean carriers as their new vessel-sharing alliances take shape, the global shipping giants now must navigate an uncertain trade environment that is now completely dominated by tariff talk.
Container shipping stocks including Maersk (-3.2 percent), Hapag-Lloyd (-4.8 percent) and ZIM (-5.1 percent) sank Monday morning after President Donald Trump signed an executive order over the weekend to slap 25-percent tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada, as well as stacked an additional 10 percent duties on China-made products.
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However, shares for the ocean carriers rallied throughout Monday and Tuesday as the expected tariffs on Mexico and Canada were put on a one-month pause.
That rally continued into Tuesday morning even as Chinese President Xi Jinping clapped back with 15 percent duties of his own on U.S. coal and liquefied natural gas, and a 10 percent tariff on crude oil, agricultural machinery and large-engine automobiles.
With Trump and Xi are expected to schedule a call later this week in an attempt to smooth things over, the container shipping industry awaits with bated breath. After all, any potential barriers to global trade would be a meaningful hindrance to ocean carriers.
In a blog post on Jan. 20, Simon Heaney, senior manager of container research at Drewry Supply Chain Advisors, said the sector “by design craves predictability and multilateral coordination,” making Trump’s return and the will-he or won’t-he application of the tariffs a major growth hurdle.
The president hasn’t ruled out tariffs on imports from the European Union (E.U.) either, furthering the concerns of container shipping giants that are traversing the trans-Atlantic trade route.
“Generally speaking, Trump’s method creates huge uncertainty in an industry that requires predictability to be efficient,” Heaney told Sourcing Journal.
For now, ocean carriers will be eyeing the U.S.-China relationship the most as the Trump-Xi talks develop. China remains the largest origin country for ocean-going U.S. imports, accounting for 41 percent of total containerized cargo in 2024, according to container shipping analytics firm Linerlytica.
Since 2018, when President Trump established his first round of tariffs during his initial term, total imports into the U.S. out of China have dipped 25 percent to $401.4 billion in 2024, down from $538.5 billion at that time, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.