Whatever the outcome of his presidency—whether two terms, one term or less—it’s likely 2018 will end up being the peak of Donald Trump’s foray into politics. What comes next will be denouement, if not disaster.

First, Trump’s accomplishments. Trump and his fellow Republicans spent 2017 working to turn their legislative goals into reality. There were setbacks, but the tax-cut law signed late in 2017, which went into effect at the start of this year, fulfilled a key Trump campaign promise. Businesses enjoyed large tax cuts this year, and about two-thirds of households got a tax cut averaging around $1,260.

The tax cuts helped goose the economy. GDP growth hit 4.2% in the second quarter, the best showing since 2014. The S&P 500 stock index hit an all-time high on Sept. 20. Trump’s approval rating hit its high point for the year on Oct. 22—43%, in the FiveThirtyEight composite survey. That was the highest level of Trump’s presidency, except for a few weeks shortly after his inauguration in 2017.

That might have been as good as it gets. Economic growth dropped to 3.5% in the third quarter and is running around 2.2% in the fourth quarter, according to forecasting firm Macroeconomic Advisers. Most economists expect GDP growth to drop below 3% next year, with a recession possible in 2020 or 2021. The economy is strong, but there are signs layoffs could pick up in coming months, with consumer and business confidence weakening.

Nobody knows where the stock market is headed, but stocks are now susceptible to worries about a slowing economy and the damage wrought by Trump’s protectionist trade policies. It’s notable that the S&P 500 is flat for 2018, when the Trump tax cuts sent profits surging. Many investors thought stock prices would surge. Since they flatlined during a year of strong growth and roaring profits, it’s not hard to foresee stocks sliding as growth and profits slow.

Midterm defeat

Voters also handed Trump a defeat this year by turning control of the House of Representatives over to Democrats. The tax cuts actually worked against Republicans, because voters felt they favored businesses and the wealthy over the middle class. Trump’s biggest legislative accomplishment turned out to be a bust with voters.

Vice President Mike Pence, center, listens as President Donald Trump argues with House Minority Leader Rep. Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., during a meeting in the Oval Office of the White House, Tuesday, Dec. 11, 2018, in Washington. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

The midterm outcome means Trump will have to deal with divided government during the last two years of his term, including countless House investigations into alleged crimes and other controversies. GOP priorities, such as additional tax cuts or immigration restrictions, are dead. There’s some talk of bipartisan effort to pass an infrastructure bill, but there’s no money, and the idea that Trumpian Republicans and Resistance Democrats will somehow get along seems delusional. Trump is likely to see none of his preferred legislation passed during the next two years.