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Last week, you might have seen that TrueBlue, Inc. (NYSE:TBI) released its first-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 8.3% to US$3.98 in the past week. The results don't look great, especially considering that statutory losses grew 25% toUS$0.48 per share. Revenues of US$370m did beat expectations by 2.2%, but it looks like a bit of a cold comfort. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
Taking into account the latest results, TrueBlue's three analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be US$1.56b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 85% to US$0.70. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.54b and losses of US$0.56 per share in 2025. While this year's revenue estimates held steady, there was also a regrettable increase in loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.
View our latest analysis for TrueBlue
With the increase in forecast losses for next year, it's perhaps no surprise to see that the average price target dipped 7.4% to US$8.33, with the analysts signalling that growing losses would be a definite concern. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic TrueBlue analyst has a price target of US$11.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$7.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. For example, we noticed that TrueBlue's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 2.6% growth to the end of 2025 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 4.2% a year over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 6.9% annually for the foreseeable future. So although TrueBlue's revenue growth is expected to improve, it is still expected to grow slower than the industry.