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Investors in TriCo Bancshares (NASDAQ:TCBK) had a good week, as its shares rose 4.0% to close at US$38.51 following the release of its first-quarter results. TriCo Bancshares reported US$99m in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.80 beat expectations, being 2.1% higher than what the analysts expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on TriCo Bancshares after the latest results.
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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from TriCo Bancshares' five analysts is for revenues of US$411.4m in 2025. This reflects a reasonable 5.5% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to shrink 3.6% to US$3.33 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$411.7m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.34 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
View our latest analysis for TriCo Bancshares
There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$46.83, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on TriCo Bancshares, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$56.00 and the most bearish at US$43.00 per share. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the TriCo Bancshares' past performance and to peers in the same industry. The period to the end of 2025 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 7.5% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 7.8% annual growth over the past five years. Juxtapose this against our data, which suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 7.1% per year. So although TriCo Bancshares is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's only growing at about the rate of the wider industry.