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Last week saw the newest third-quarter earnings release from Trican Well Service Ltd. (TSE:TCW), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. Results look mixed - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at CA$222m, statutory earnings beat expectations 2.9%, with Trican Well Service reporting profits of CA$0.12 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
View our latest analysis for Trican Well Service
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Trican Well Service's eight analysts is for revenues of CA$983.4m in 2025. This would reflect a reasonable 2.4% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to decline 14% to CA$0.50 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CA$997.4m and earnings per share (EPS) of CA$0.57 in 2025. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the real cut to new EPS forecasts.
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at CA$5.69, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Trican Well Service, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CA$6.75 and the most bearish at CA$4.75 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Trican Well Service's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 1.9% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 17% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 5.6% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Trican Well Service.