While Trex Company, Inc. (NYSE:TREX) might not be the most widely known stock at the moment, it saw a decent share price growth in the teens level on the NYSE over the last few months. With many analysts covering the mid-cap stock, we may expect any price-sensitive announcements have already been factored into the stock’s share price. However, could the stock still be trading at a relatively cheap price? Let’s take a look at Trex Company’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if the opportunity still exists.
See our latest analysis for Trex Company
What is Trex Company worth?
Trex Company appears to be overvalued by 30% at the moment, based on my discounted cash flow valuation. The stock is currently priced at US$56.47 on the market compared to my intrinsic value of $43.39. Not the best news for investors looking to buy! If you like the stock, you may want to keep an eye out for a potential price decline in the future. Given that Trex Company’s share is fairly volatile (i.e. its price movements are magnified relative to the rest of the market) this could mean the price can sink lower, giving us another chance to buy in the future. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for share price volatility.
What does the future of Trex Company look like?
Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Buying a great company with a robust outlook at a cheap price is always a good investment, so let’s also take a look at the company's future expectations. With profit expected to grow by 36% over the next couple of years, the future seems bright for Trex Company. It looks like higher cash flow is on the cards for the stock, which should feed into a higher share valuation.
What this means for you:
Are you a shareholder? It seems like the market has well and truly priced in TREX’s positive outlook, with shares trading above its fair value. However, this brings up another question – is now the right time to sell? If you believe TREX should trade below its current price, selling high and buying it back up again when its price falls towards its real value can be profitable. But before you make this decision, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.
Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on TREX for a while, now may not be the best time to enter into the stock. The price has surpassed its true value, which means there’s no upside from mispricing. However, the positive outlook is encouraging for TREX, which means it’s worth diving deeper into other factors in order to take advantage of the next price drop.