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TreeHouse Foods, Inc.'s THS stock has tumbled 12.3% over the past three months as it navigates a challenging environment marked by weaker consumer trends, slower category growth and operational disruptions.
During this period, THS' stock has underperformed the broader industry, which saw a 3.8% decrease, as well as the Zacks Consumer Staples sector, which fell 2.7%. In contrast, the S&P 500 saw a 7.2% increase over the same timeframe.
Let's take a closer look at the key factors negatively impacting TreeHouse Foods’ performance.
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Weak Consumption Trends Hurt TreeHouse Foods
TreeHouse Foods is facing the negative effects of slowing consumer consumption, as highlighted in its third-quarter 2024 performance, wherein the top line declined year over year and missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Quarterly net sales of $839.1 million dropped 2.8% and organic sales decreased 2.7%. The volume/mix contributed to a decline of 0.8%. The pricing and product recall returns further led to declines of 0.5% and 1.4%, respectively.
Although private brand unit sales were positive during the third quarter, there was a notable deceleration as the quarter progressed. This reflects sustained consumer pressure and broad market challenges. The softness persisted into October, with expectations for these trends to continue in the near term. A shrinking market for private brands, despite their historical growth trajectory, raises concerns about TreeHouse Foods’ ability to sustain revenue growth.
What’s on the Horizon for THS?
Thanks to softer consumer demand and a voluntary recall of frozen griddle products, TreeHouse Foods recently lowered its 2024 adjusted net sales and adjusted EBITDA guidance. Management expects full-year adjusted net sales of $3.37-$3.4 billion, which indicates a decline of 2% to 1% from the reported level in 2023. This forecast is revised from the previous guidance of $3.43-$3.5 billion, implying a flat to a 2% increase. Adjusted net sales for the fourth quarter are projected to be between $900 million and $930 million, indicating a decline of 2% to 1% year over year.
The company revised its 2024 adjusted EBITDA guidance downward in the range of $335-$345 million compared with $360-$380 million projected earlier in 2024. This revision implies weakening consumption trends and a softer mix, leading to supply chain deleverage, along with the anticipated impact of the voluntary griddle recall.
Earnings Estimates for THS Take a Hit
TreeHouse Foods’ full-year earnings estimates are going down, and a similar trend could be noticed in its upcoming quarterly projections. Over the last 30 days, analysts have lowered their estimates for the fourth quarter and 2024 by 27.6% and 12.2% to 97 cents and $2.08 per share, respectively. This downward adjustment reflects a negative sentiment among analysts and suggests potential challenges in achieving growth.