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The carnage in the stock market following President Donald Trump’s April 2 unveiling of sweeping tariffs on virtually all U.S. trade partners has been extraordinary — but it’s a historic surge in long-term Treasury yields, which would normally be expected to fall when financial markets are in disarray, that’s really raising eyebrows.
In fact, the rise in yields, which move opposite to prices, and other signs of stress in the bond market were seen as a key reason why Trump moved earlier this week to pause a large portion of those tariffs. But the partial tariff climbdown doesn’t appear to have soothed bond-market worries.
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Take a look at the 30-year Treasury bond BX:TMUBMUSD30Y. The yield jumped 48.2 basis points, or 0.482 percentage point, this week to end Friday at 4.873% — its biggest weekly rise since the week ended April 24, 1987, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Over any five-day stretch, it’s the largest increase since a period ending March 18, 2020.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note BX:TMUBMUSD10Y jumped 50 basis points to 4.492, its largest weekly rise since the week ended Nov. 16, 2001.
“Suffice it to say that this is not normal behavior during times of general market angst,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets, in a note, referring to the Treasury market’s traditional role as a safe haven during periods of market chaos.
Apollo Global Management Chief Economist Torsten Slok, who raised alarm bells over the yield rise earlier this week, on Friday offered three possible explanations for the moves in a note:
“The answer is likely some combination of these three forces,” Slok wrote.
Basis trades aim to profit from the price discrepancy between a Treasury futures contract and a Treasury bond with similar characteristics. Slok raised the alarm over the impact of an unwind of those trades earlier this week. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and other officials have played down potential dislocations in the market.
Read: How the ‘trade of the year’ became a nightmare for investors after Trump’s tariffs