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The Weir Group PLC (LON:WEIR) shareholders have seen the share price descend 11% over the month. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last five years have been very strong. Indeed, the share price is up an impressive 159% in that time. We think it's more important to dwell on the long term returns than the short term returns. Ultimately business performance will determine whether the stock price continues the positive long term trend.
While the stock has fallen 5.0% this week, it's worth focusing on the longer term and seeing if the stocks historical returns have been driven by the underlying fundamentals.
There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
During five years of share price growth, Weir Group achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 17% per year. This EPS growth is reasonably close to the 21% average annual increase in the share price. This indicates that investor sentiment towards the company has not changed a great deal. Rather, the share price has approximately tracked EPS growth.
The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
We know that Weir Group has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? If you're interested, you could check this free report showing consensus revenue forecasts .
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Weir Group the TSR over the last 5 years was 176%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
It's good to see that Weir Group has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 4.7% in the last twelve months. That's including the dividend. However, the TSR over five years, coming in at 23% per year, is even more impressive. Potential buyers might understandably feel they've missed the opportunity, but it's always possible business is still firing on all cylinders. Most investors take the time to check the data on insider transactions. You can click here to see if insiders have been buying or selling.