April brought intense volatility to the U.S. stock market, largely driven by former President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff measures. The most notable of these was the announcement of “Liberation Day” tariffs, which sent shockwaves through financial markets.
In just two days, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped over 4,000 points — a 9.5% plunge. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq followed suit, with the Nasdaq entering bear market territory. Though the markets have since recouped some losses on hints of trade de-escalation, uncertainty continues to linger.
Overall, the S&P 500 lost 1.8%, the Dow Jones retreated 3.7%, the Nasdaq Composite was off 0.9% and the Russell 2000 plunged about 4%, April.
Hints of Tariff Rollbacks And/or Deals Fuel Market Stabilization
The universal 10% import tariff, alongside country-specific levies — most notably the steep 145% tariff on Chinese imports — had a profound impact on market sentiment earlier in the month. The result was a swift sell-off, with major indices entering bear market territory.
However, recent developments signal potential relief. China is reportedly considering suspending its 125% tariffs on select U.S. products. However, Trump doubled down on the China tariffs, saying, 'they deserve it.'
Meanwhile, President Trump rolled back auto tariffs following concerns raised by major automobile manufacturers. In another relief measure, companies already subject to tariffs on components and raw materials will be spared from the new steel and aluminum taxes targeting imports from Canada and Mexico. These conciliatory moves have helped lift investor confidence.
Strong Q1 Earnings, but Clouds Ahead
Roughly one-third of the way through the first-quarter earnings season, corporate results have largely exceeded expectations. According to early reports, S&P 500 companies have delivered earnings 7% above forecasts and revenues 1% ahead of consensus. However, despite a strong start, there has been adramatic reversal in expectationsfor the rest of 2025.
Second Quarter Now Expected to be Weakest
Heading into the earnings season, the first quarter was expected to be the year’s softest. But growing uncertainty over macroeconomic conditions and trade policy has prompted many companies to issue downbeat second-quarter forecasts or withdraw full-year projections altogether.
As a result, analysts have cut estimates for the second, third and fourth quarters, leaving the first quarter now projected to have the highest earnings growth of the year. Currently, the second quarter is shaping up to be the worst period of 2025 in terms of earnings performance (read: Reasons to Buy Buffer ETFs Despite Hints of Trade De-Escalation).
U.S. Economy Shrank in Q1
The U.S. economy shrank by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025, marking the first contraction since 2022. This decline was steeper than the 0.2% drop expected by economists surveyed by Bloomberg and a significant reversal from the 2.4% growth rate in Q4 2024.
The decline in gross domestic product (GDP) was largely driven by a sharp increase in imports, while broader economic indicators pointed to a slowdown. Consumer spending rose just 1.8%, the slowest rate since mid-2023. Meanwhile, inflation pressures remained persistent.
Oil's Worst Month Since 2021
Oil prices had a downbeat month in April as global trade tensions weakened the demand outlook. United States Oil Fund LP USO lost 17.5% and United States Brent Oil Fund LP BNO retreated 16.7% in April. Brent crude is heading toward its largest monthly decline since 2021.
The price drop has been driven by the sharp escalation of U.S. tariffs on global trade partners and OPEC+ discussions to boost oil production. While many nations are negotiating with Washington, China has so far refrained from entering talks (read: Oil's Worst Month Since 2021: Will Energy ETFs Rebound?).
Gold Glitters
Gold has been one of the standout performers during Trump's first 100 days in office.The tariffs have escalated trade tensions and raised the risk of a global recession, prompting investors to seek refuge in safe-haven assets.
The recent weakening of the U.S. dollar has also supported gold prices. Additionally, a dovish Fed and increased gold purchases by central banks further bolster the outlook for the precious metal (read: A Glimpse at Trump's 100 Days in Office: ETF Winners & Losers).
Winning ETFs in Focus
Against this backdrop, we highlight below a few of the winning exchange-traded fund (ETF) areas from the month of April.
Gold & Silver Miners – Sprott Active Gold & Silver Miners ETF GBUG – Up 8.8%
Gold’s gain was based on the increasing safe-haven demand. However, since mining stocks often act as leveraged plays of the underlying metal, gold and silver mining ETF GBUG surged in April.
Germany – First Trust Germany AlphaDEX ETF FGM– Up 8.2%
European shares have been in a great shape this year. German shares led gains in Europe, due to a historic debt reform. A favorable majority of Germany's 16 federal states has voted in late March on an historic change to the country's debt borrowing rules, paving the way for billions of euros in defense and infrastructure spending.
India – Columbia India Consumer ETF INCO– Up 7%
India’s decently strong growth outlook, supported by public investment and rising consumer spending, makes it appealing to investors. Deloitte recently projected economic growth at 6.5-6.7% for the current fiscal, as tax incentives provided in the Budget are expected to push domestic demand amid an uncertain global trade environment.
FANG+ -- MicroSectors FANG+ ETN FNGS– Up 5.8%
Despite massive volatility, this tech segment managed to hold its ground and posted gains in April. The underlying NYSE FANG+ Index is an equal-dollar weighted index which seeks to provide exposure to a group of highly-traded growth stocks of next generation technology and tech-enabled companies.a
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