COSCO SHIPPING Ports Limited (HKG:1199), a infrastructure company based in Hong Kong, saw a double-digit share price rise of over 10% in the past couple of months on the SEHK. With many analysts covering the mid-cap stock, we may expect any price-sensitive announcements have already been factored into the stock’s share price. But what if there is still an opportunity to buy? Today I will analyse the most recent data on COSCO SHIPPING Ports’s outlook and valuation to see if the opportunity still exists. Check out our latest analysis for COSCO SHIPPING Ports
What’s the opportunity in COSCO SHIPPING Ports?
COSCO SHIPPING Ports appears to be overvalued by 43.69% at the moment, based on my discounted cash flow valuation. The stock is currently priced at HK$7.12 on the market compared to my intrinsic value of HK$4.96. This means that the buying opportunity has probably disappeared for now. Another thing to keep in mind is that COSCO SHIPPING Ports’s share price is quite stable relative to the rest of the market, as indicated by its low beta. This means that if you believe the current share price should move towards its intrinsic value over time, a low beta could suggest it is not likely to reach that level anytime soon, and once it’s there, it may be hard to fall back down into an attractive buying range again.
What kind of growth will COSCO SHIPPING Ports generate?
Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Buying a great company with a robust outlook at a cheap price is always a good investment, so let’s also take a look at the company’s future expectations. Though in the case of COSCO SHIPPING Ports, it is expected to deliver a highly negative earnings growth in the next few years, which doesn’t help build up its investment thesis. It appears that risk of future uncertainty is high, at least in the near term.
What this means for you:
Are you a shareholder? If you believe 1199 should trade below its current price, selling high and buying it back up again when its price falls towards its real value can be profitable. Given the risk from a negative growth outlook, this could be the right time to de-risk your portfolio. But before you make this decision, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.
Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on 1199 for some time, now may not be the best time to enter into the stock. Its price has risen beyond its true value, on top of a negative future outlook. However, there are also other important factors which we haven’t considered today, such as the track record of its management. Should the price fall in the future, will you be well-informed enough to buy?