But it will be a week that will include the possibility of dramatic TV from the inauguration to the flurry of executive orders Donald Trump says he'll sign authorizing the raids that will detain and deport undocumented people from the United States. For now, the focus will be on deporting people facing criminal charges.
All these activities, in turn, could set off a big bout of market instability all week.
The stock market is closed on MLK Day, shifting focus to TikTok's debacle and Donald Trump's inauguration.Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images
TikTok shut down — and then came back
We waited all week to see if TikTok would shut down over the weekend. The social media site threatened to do so on Sunday unless, somehow, the President-elect intervened. This past week, the Supreme Court upheld Congress' right to ban TikTok in the United States for national security reasons.
There have been calls for TikTok to sell the U.S. business to American investors.
A bipartisan Congress passed the legislation out of fear that China would use the personal data of TikTok users for intelligence gathering, and the site was supposed to shut down on Sunday. China is not a direct owner of TikDok, but ByteDance, TikTok's parent company, is based in Beijing and is owned by Chinese investors. ByteDance CEO Zhang Yiming is reputed to be the richest man in China.
On Saturday, Trump said he's inclined to give TikTok and potential buyers 90 days to negotiate a deal.
But the Biden administration would not intervene to prevent the shutdown.
So, shortly before midnight Eastern time before the shutdown deadline, TikTok became unavailable to many of its 170 million U.S. users.
"Sorry, TikTok isn't available right now," a note on TikTok's U.S. site read. "A law banning TikTok has been enacted in the U.S. Unfortunately, that means you can't use TikTok for now.
"We are fortunate that President Trump has indicated that he will work with us on a solution to reinstate TikTok once he takes office. Please stay tuned!"
It didn't take long. Trump said Sunday morning he'd sign an executive order after his inauguration giving TikTok 90 days to work out a solution. Almost immediately, TikTok was back.
Not everyone was thrilled. In a joint statement, Republican Senators Tom Cotton of Arkansas and Pete Ricketts of Nebraska said they would accept TipTok resuming operation only by “severing all ties between TikTok and Communist China. Only then will Americans be protected from the grave threat posed to their privacy and security by a communist-controlled TikTok."
If TipTok can't cut a deal and really does shut down, the winners might well be Instagram and YouTube, both owned by Meta Platforms (META) , which also owns Facebook.
A wild start for a new administration
The TikTok shutdown and resumption will color Donald Trump's inauguration, which will take place at noon Monday in the rotunda of the U.S. Capitol building. It was moved inside because of cold weather forecasts.
The audience will include the political establishment with a bevy of billionaires in the audience, including Elon Musk, Trump advisor and CEO of Tesla (TSLA) ; Mark Zuckerberg, CEO of Facebook-parent Meta Platforms; and Shou Zi Chew, the CEO of TikTok, whose company was effusive in its praise for the President-elect.
The ceremony and Trump's address afterward will be followed by executive orders that may include detaining and deporting thousands of undocumented workers across the country.
News reports suggest the administration will start its deportation campaign with raids in Chicago, Los Angeles, and New York. The effort will be vast, and Tom Homan, Trump's immigration czar, is looking for facilities to house as many as 100,000 people at a time.
Donald Trump will be sworn in as President of the United States on Monday, January 20, 2025.Andrew Harnik/Getty Images
It is unknown whether the manpower is available for such a project and whether the money can be appropriated.
At the same time, the incoming administration wants to boost tariffs on countries ranging from China to Canada and Mexico, as well as the European Union. These may be announced this coming week.
But there's more. Reuters reported this past week that Germany's U.S. ambassador has warned his government that the incoming administration wants to rob law enforcement and media of their independence and hand big tech companies "co-governing power."
There is a counterpoint to all this: Donald Trump sees the stock market as his daily report card. And many analysts believe that stocks will tumble if his administration comes across as too rash. So, they believe pronouncements may be more bluster than anything else.
All of this comes as stocks have risen modestly so far in January. Early losses at New Year's have been replaced by enthusiastic buying. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was up 2.9% this past week, but because of early month weakness, it is only up 2% this month.
The Nasdaq Composite added 2.5% for the week, bringing its monthly gain to 1.7%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average produced a 3.7% gain for the week, bringing its monthly gain to 2.2%.
Electricity generator Vistra Energy (VST) , up 24%.
Yes, the presence of energy-related stocks makes sense. The price of crude oil is up 8.6% so far in January, settling Friday at $77.39 per barrel. The national price of gasoline is up about 2.5% this month. A year ago, it was down about 0.5%.
The big S&P 500 losers in January include Edison International (EIX) , down 21%; vaccine maker Moderna (MRNA) , down 18%; beverage giant Constellation Brands (STZ) , down 16.6% and Apple (AAPL) (yes, THAT Apple), down 8.2%.
Fourth quarter earnings season revs up
Starting Tuesday, the fourth-quarter earnings season starts its big parade. Here are some of the stock reports for the week ahead.
Tuesday:
Netflix (NFLX) . Revenue estimate: $10.1 billion, up 15%. Earnings estimate: $4.20 a share, up 99% from a year ago.
Charles Schwab (SCHW) . Revenue est. $5.13 billion, up 15%. Earnings est.: $0.89, up 31%.
3M (MMM) . Revenue est. $5.9 billion after spinoffs. Earnings est.: $1.55.
D.R. Horton (DHI) . Revenue est.: $7.1 billion, down 7.8%. Earnings est.: $2.39, down 15.3%.
Wednesday:
Procter & Gamble (PG) . Revenue est.: $21.7 billion, up 1.1%. Earnings est.: $1.87, up 1.6%.
Johnson &Johnson (JNJ) . Revenue est.: $22.5 billion, up 4.9%. Earnings est.: $2.04, down 10.9%.
Abbott Laboratories (ABT) . Revenue est.: $11 billion, up 7.8%, Earnings est.: $1.34, up 12.6%.
GE Vernova (GEV) . Revenue est.: $10.7 billion. Earnings est.: $2.47 Spun out of General Electric in 2024.
